Indian Wells Masters 2021 (7th October)

SCHMIEDLOVA V KONJUH OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS 

Almost identical win loss records on outdoor hard courts with Schmiedlova 31-19 over her last 50 and Konjuh 33-17 points towards a close match as does their recent win loss of both 6 wins 4 losses.

GARCIA V FLIPKENS OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS 

Two of the three head to head matches have covered this spread the only match not was when they met on clay which is by far Flipkens worst surface, if Garcia can serve well then she can keep this tight and Flipkens if normally very good if going behind in a match.

SEVASTOVA V HERCOG OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS 

Sevastova leads the head to head 3-1 but both times they have met on hard courts the spread has been covered in two tight sets and no reason to expect anything different tonight. 

TREVISAN V BOUZKOVA OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 5-6 

Trevisian in better recent form but Bouzkova the better player on hard courts.

ZHENG V FRECH OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 5-6 

Head to head the only time they met was a three set match between two very closely matched players.

Good luck if you follow. 

WTA BRISBANE: RISKE V MUCHOVA Over 22.5 Games @ 2.27 MarathonBet

WTA BRISBANE

RISKE V MUCHOVA Over 22.5 Games @ 2.27 MarathonBet 

Ranked 18 and 21 respectively, they met twice last season and both matches went three sets and had 30 games and 28 games, Muchova is the more likely winner here having played a bit of competitive tennis in the Czech league in the week before Xmas and she has a better record on hard courts but I expect Riske to keep it close and take it to three sets. 

SAKKARI V OSAKA - Over 21.5 Games @ 2.13 MarathonBet 

Ranked 23 and 3 respectively, three meetings between the pair and two of thWTA BRISose meetings have gone to three sets, total games were 26, 22 and 26 with Osaka leading the head to head 2-1 

KENIN V SEVASTOVA - Over 21.5 Games @ 2.06 MarathonBet 

Ranked 14 and 27 respectively, met once last year and match went to three sets with a total game total of 28 with Kenin coming through. Kenin has the more power and better serve but Sevastova has greater variation and again this should be tight with Kenin coming through in three. 

PAVLYUCHENKOVA V KVITOVA - Over 21.5 Games @ 2.03 MarathonBet 

Ranked 31 and 7 respectively Kvitova leads the head to head 7-4 and out of those games only once has this points spread not been covered and that was on clay. The danger is Kvitova can blow anyone off the court if she is on form and she does like this part of the world so I expect her to play well but I am happy to go with the head to head record.

Pro Tennis Trading: 2019 US Open

US OPEN 

SWIATEK (2.02) V SEVASTOVA (1.94) 

Swiatek has a 17-7 record this year on hard courts, compared to Sevastova 8-9 who has struggled for consistency this season even during her favoured clay-court season. Swiatek has probably the most aggressive return of serve on tour and I can see her overpowering the variation of Sevastova on this court. 

LAY SEVASTOVA 1.94 EXIT 1.35 

WOZNIACKI (1.70) V COLLINS (2.36)

7-6 Wozniacki and 11-8 Collins are their respective records on hard court this season, both came through tough first-round matches in three sets. They have only met on clay in their head to head with Wozniacki winning last season at the French Open and Collins winning this season after Wozniacki retired after losing the first set, although interestingly two of the three sets went to tie breaks so it suggests the players are closely matched, I believe Collins has a little more power on her shots and I fancy her to come through a tight match up. 

BACK COLLINS 2.36 EXIT 1.40

PRO TENNIS TRADING: WTA JURMALA 2019 (FREE TIPS)

WTA JURMALA 

SEVASTOVA (1.59) V POTAPOVA (2.70) 

Potapova leads the head to head 1-0 winning this year in three sets in Prague on clay, Potapova is the next star in waiting having proved herself on the Junior Circuit, both players and very comfortable on clay and it has the makings of a very close match and I am happy to lay Sevastova at her current price and look to exit at 2.20+ 

WTA PALERMO

SAMSONOVA (2.62) V TEICHMAN (1.54) 

Teichmann leads the head to head 1-0 winning last year in Rome on clay in straight sets. Samsonova has a decent record of 101-61 record on clay and she has played pretty fearless tennis this week, I think she can take this today and happy to lay Teichmann at her current price, look to exit around 2.40+

WTA MALLORCA: KENIN (2.42) Vs SEVASTOVA (1.69)

WTA MALLORCA

KENIN (2.42) V SEVASTOVA (1.69) Kenin done us a huge favour by beating Mertens after losing the first set 6-1 and then just dropping 4 games in the remaining two sets, Sevastova has looked good as well but I just favour Kenin here as she has played the higher standard and beaten the better grass court players so far. Similar to the Bencic match I feel her price is wrong and happy to back her. 

KERBER (1.61) V BENCIC (2.60) 

Kerber leads the head to head 4-3, winning all of the last four and all matches have been straight sets wins for the respective players. Grass is easily Bencic’s best surface and having backed her for Wimbledon this year she has shown a maturity to her game that has not been there earlier in her career, both players have been comfortable here but I have to give the edge to Bencic in this matchup due to her liking of the surface and she is too big a price. 

FRENCH OPEN: Martic (2.52) V Pliskova (1.64)

FRENCH OPEN

Martic (2.52) V Pliskova (1.64) 

Martic leads the head to head 3-1, winning in straight sets the only time they have met on clay but that was 10 years ago so not overly relevant. Clay is Martic favoured surface by far as her win loss record of 145-79 and this season 13-2 shows and also it is Pliskova's least favoured despite winning Rome last week as it does somewhat negate her biggest weapon which is her powerful serve. I think this will be a close contest and will be looking at laying Pliskova during the first set if she trades below 1.40 

Sevastova (1.84) V Mertens (2.18) 

Sevastova leads the head to head 1-0 and is the better player on dirt, I will be looking to lay Mertens below 1.80 as I favour Sevastova for the win without too many problems.

WTA Dubai: GOERGES (1.35) V RISKE(3.40)

WTA DUBAI 

GOERGES (1.35) V RISKE(3.40) 

Goerges leads the head to head 2-0 one match went three sets and her price is too short considering they met last week and Goerges won 7-5 in the third set. Considering that then she has to be a lay at her current price of 

1.35 ZHANG (2.28) V KONTAVEIT(1.65) 

Kontaveit leads the head to head 2-0 but both matches have gone three sets and I see no reason why this won't be the same. I will be looking to lay Kontaveit if she wins the first set around or hits the 1.120 mark during the first set. 

HSIEH (2.82) V SEVASTOVA (1.49) 

Back Hsieh at her current price and look to exit if she gets a breakpoint or if her price comes down to 2.20, her variation will cause Sevastova problems and I think three sets are likely here. 

MUGURUZA 2.24) V YASTREMSKA (1.74) 

Yastremska leads the head to head 2-0 but I am going against the youngster today, happy to lay her at her current price and I feel Muguruza will cause her problems today. I will look to exit around the 2.20 mark 

BOUCHARD (1.61) V LAPKO (2.50) 

The stats on hard courts are very similar with Bouchard just slightly ahead, I will be looking to back Bouchard around the 2.0 mark if she hits it as I think she comes through here.

WTA MONTREAL: SEVASTOVA TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 2.64

WTA MONTREAL 

SEVASTOVA TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 2.64 

Sevastova been in good form although was a little fortunate to beat Puig saving match points but the way she came on strong in the third set was impressive. Stephens has become a real threat especially in the bigger tournaments where she appears to raise her game but her results since reaching the final of the French Open have been pretty poor and certainly Sevastova in the better form. Head to head is tied 1-1 with Sevastova winning their most recent meeting 

                                           HOLD SERVE                          BREAK SERVE 

SEVASTOVA                      67%                                          38.6% 20-12(130-80) 
STEPHENS                        70%                                          38.2% 23-10(147-101)

WTA MALLORCA: LOTTNER TO BEAT SEVASTOVA @ 2-1

WTA MALLORCA

LOTTNER TO BEAT SEVASTOVA @ 2-1

Lottner has been playing excellently of late, reaching the QF in her last grass tournament and winning her three matches here so far.

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

LOTTNER 75.6% 35.4%

SEVASTOVA 68.8% 37.4%

PETERSON TO BEAT TOMLJANOVIC @ EVENS

Both have good serves especially on grass but Peterson is by far the stronger on return and if she can continue serving the way she has recently then Tomljanovic will find it very difficult to create opportunities to break serve.

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

PETERSON 75.5% 34.6%

TOMLJANOVIC  75.4% 25.4%

WTA CHARLESTON

WTA CHARLESTON

SEVASTOVA TO BEAT GOERGES @ 21-20

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

SEVASTOVA  70.9% 39.3%

GOERGES 74% 31.7%

Goerges leads the head to head 4-3, interestingly if the serve and break percentages are looked at on clay over the last 12 months only then they become more in favour of Sevastova who in fact holds serve more than Goerges and Breaks over 10% more often and considering Goerges has been in great form during this time it shows how good Sevastova has been on clay as well.

BERTENS TO BEAT KEYS @ EVENS 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

BERTENS  76.4% 43.9%

KEYS  70.7% 36.3%

Bertens leads the head to head 1-0 winning at the French Open in their only meetings, looking at the stats over the last 2 months Keys record on. Clay is 4 wins 4 losses compared to Bertens 25 Wins to 6 Losses. Bertens looks a huge price here as everything points to her being victorious as she is so much more at home on clay than Keys 

WTA INDIAN WELLS

WTA INDIAN WELLS

VICKERY TO BEAT OSAKA @ 2-1

Vickery has been in good form on the ITF circuit reaching the QF and SF in two of her last three tournaments and has taken that confidence into this tournement winning four matches so far including Bouchard and Muguruza. Osaka beat Sharapova and Radwanska here so far and has looked impressive, she relies heavily on her serve and Vickery’s aggressive return game will cause her problems 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

VICKERY 67.6% 45.2%

OSAKA 71.4% 35.2%

SEVSTOVA TO BEAT GOERGES @ 2-1

Goerges leads the head to head 4-2, both started the season on fire and Goerges has found consistency to her game which makes her a fearsome opponent, Sevastova has great variation and this is the key to beating Goerges here, taking the pace off the ball, drop shots and great variation which can upset Goerges as she likes pace on the ball and anything else can unsettle her. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

SEVASTOVA 66.3% 39.8%

GOERGES 79.3% 31.8%

ZHUK TO BEAT COLINS @ 11-10  + OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 11-10

Collins leads the head to head 3-0, their last two meetings have gone to three sets, both had good victories yesterday with Zhuk eventually getting past Rybriakova on her 12th match point and Collins carrying on the demise of Madison Keys outside of the grand slams as I predicted at the start of the season. Despite the head to head I am siding with Zhuk here as she has impressed me this week with an excellent serve and very good all round game. The total games has been covered in two of their three meetings and more importantly in their last two meetings

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

COLLINS 60.4% 37.3%

ZHUK 68% 41.5%