Monday, 1 August 2022

Citi Open (2nd August)

CITI OPEN 

Tauson V Petkovic 

Tauson has the far superior outdoor hard court win loss record showing a 28-13 record compared to Petkovic 9-11 over the past 2 seasons. Tauson holds serve over 5% more than Petkovic on first serve and just below 5% on second serve. The stats for returns are almost identical. I am looking to lay Petkovic around 1.80 or below. 

Kalinskaya V Brengle 

Kalinskaya leads the he’d to head 2-0 winning both in straight sets on outdoor hard courts, Neither player are in great form with a 3-7 win loss record over their last 10 matches but taking into account Kalinskaya’s head to head record and her superior record on outdoor hard courts over the past 2 seasons reads 36-21 compared to Brengle 29-23. Brengle is a steady player who is consistent but can lack power something that Kalinskaya does not lack although she can be inconsistent. I am looking at laying Brengle @ 1.80 or below. 

Also going for a total games treble 

Sherif V Vekic Over 20.5 Games @ 4-5 
Minnen V Kanepi Over 21.5 Games @ 10-11 
Townsend V Sanders Over 21.5 Games @ 4-5

Monday, 25 July 2022

WTA Warsaw Open 2022

WTA WARSAW 

Burel to beat Schmiedlova @ 13-10 

Schmiedlova leads the head to head 1-0 winning last season in Bastad in three sets. Burel is a very talented by unreliable young player who is likely to achieve a lot of success on her favourite surface over the coming years and is value her to upset her more experience opponent 

Diaz to beat Bogdan @ 6-5 

Diaz reached the QF last week in Palermo and has a better record on clay this season 12-9 compared to 9-8 for her opponent but more importantly if we go back 50 matches on clay Diaz is 34-16 compared to 28-22 

Kovinic to beat Paolini @ Evens 

Kovinic is the better player on clay with her win loss record of 11-4 tis season on clay compared to Paolini with a poor 6-7 win loss record. Kovinic also leads the head to head 3-0

Thanks to Mark for forwarding these trades after being ill from Coronavirus.

Wishing him well.  

Wednesday, 25 May 2022

French Open 2022 (25th May)

WTA FRENCH OPEN 

Haddad Maia to beat Kanepi @ 13-10 

Both players are happy on clay with a record of 29-9 for Maia and Kanepi 14-4 over the last 12 months,Odds on Maia to come through are far to bi for a match which looks very much a coin toss. 

Stephens to beat Cirstea @ 13-10 

Stephens does tend to up her game on the big stage and being a former champion here she should prove too consistent for Cirstea

Sunday, 22 May 2022

French Open 2022 (23rd May)

FRENCH OPEN 

ZANEVSKA TO BEAT ZHENG @ 5-4 Zanevska is the better play on clay, should be gently of breaks of serve and a great trading match.

DODIN TO BEAT PETKOVIC @ EVENS Similar to above Dodin is on the way up with Petkovic going the other way another great trading match with plenty of breaks of serve and swings predicted.

KUCOVA TO BEAT SCHMIEDLOVA @ 2-1 Kucova leads the head to head 3-1 and seems to be able to intimidate Schmiedlova on court a little bit.

KALINSKAYA TO BEAT KEYS @ 11-5 Kalinskaya has the powerful groundstrokes to be a able to match Keys and is far too bigger a price here. 

VOLYNETS TO BEAT GOLUBIC @ 21-20 

RAKHIMOVA TO BEAT KRUNIC @ 7-4 

ZIDANSEK TO BEAT LIU @ 6-5 
Zidansek better player on clay

Sunday, 1 May 2022

WTA Madrid Open 2022 (2nd May)

WTA MADRID 

Jabeur to beat Bencic @ 2.20 

Bencic leads the head to head 2-0 winning both matches on clay, one last month on the faster green clay of Charleston and last year here when Jabeur retired. Both players have similar win loss records on clay both showing a 33-17 win loss record. I have backed Bencic for the Wimbledon title so happy to avoid her until the grass season and think Jabeur is a little bit of value here.

Azarenka + 3.0 games to beat Anisimova @ 1.943 

Both players have very smilier win loss records on clay with Anisimova 32-18 compared to Azarenka 30-20. I feel Azarenka will put a lot of pressure on Anisimova;s service game and with the addition of the handicap then she may be able to come through here.

Good luck if you follow. 

Saturday, 9 April 2022

WTA BOGOTA (9th April)

WTA BOGOTA 

Rakhimova to beat Maria @ 11-10 

Rakhimova has the better win loss record on clay over their last 50 matches and she has come through here in impressive fashion in three tough sets against all her opponents but she has impressed me with how she has pulled through. Maria has had the easier run to the SF stage but equally the higher player she has beaten was ranked 80. Coin toss of a match so 11-10 is the value here. 

WTA CHARLESTON 

Anisimova to beat Jabeur @ Evens 

Both players have a fairly similar record on clay although this clay plays slightly different to the clay in other parts of the world but the last 50 matches Anisimova has a 32-18 win loss record and Jabeur has a 31-19 win loss record. Jabeur has not lost a set this week but two of her three opponents have been ranked outside of the top 50 ranked players in the world so she has done what was expected. Anisimova has been impressive in defeating Sabalenka ranked 5 in the world and the way she dismantled Vanderweghe in the last round was very impressive.

Saturday, 12 March 2022

Indian Wells 2022

INDIAN WELLS 

GOLUBIC TO BEAT PUTINTSEVA @ 6-5 

Golubic leads the head to head 1-0 winning their only meeting in straight sets at Wimbledon, Golubic has the better serve and all round more powerful game. Putintseva can be very vulnerable on her service games and I expect this to be where Golubic exerts her pressure. 

FERNANDEZ TO BEAT ANISIMOVA @ 13-10 

They have never met but the match records of each player looks very similar with both players boating a 7-3 win loss record for their last 10 matches and on hard courts Fernandez has a 22-8 win loss record over the last 12 months compared to Anisimova 20-10. Both players are very closely matched so the value certainly here lies with Fernandez. 

 KALINSKAYA TO BEAT CIRSTEA @ 7-5 

Cirstea is far too unreliable and erratic to be backing her at odds on and Kalinskaya is an improving players who should be ale to cause her problems as Cirstea will not be able to hit through her. 

GAUFF TO BEAT HALEP @ 7-5 
TAUSON TO BEAT SWIATEK @ 3-1

Wednesday, 2 March 2022

WTA MONTERREY (3rd March)

WTA MONTERREY

TORMO V TAN OVER 21 GAMES @ 11-10 

Almost identical records on recent performances with them reading both 6-4 win loss records over their last 10 matches and 30-20 compared to 31-19 for Tan over the last 50. On to todays surface the records again are almost identical with Tormo 5-5Tan 6-4 but both with identical records on this surface over their last 50 matches winning 32 and losing 18. 

Everything points towards a tight match here.

Sunday, 13 February 2022

WTA Dubai (13th February)

WTA DUBAI 

OUTRIGHT 

Paula Badosa Gibert 9-1 Gibert has the power and consistency to really push on this season Simona Halep 12-1 Consistency is the key for Halep, while maybe not at the top of the women’s game anymore she is very competitive and her defensive skills and consistency could pay dividends at a decent price here. 

Kenin V Ostapenko Over 22.5 Games @ 21-20 Very evenly matched, Ostapenko hits the flatter and harder but is more at home on clay and Kenin just will not give up. 

Dart V Kostyuk Over 21.5 Games @ 21-20 Both win around 50% of the second set after losing the first set on outdoor hard courts ad both have come through two rounds of qualifying here to get to this stage. 

Gauff V Pegula Over 22.5 Games @ 11-10

Saturday, 22 January 2022

Kanepi V Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 11-10 (22nd January)

Kanepi V Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 11-10 

Kanepi leads the head to head 1-0 winning in three sets last season at Melbourne. Kanepi has played well so far this week only dropping one set in her 3 matches so far. Sabalenka still hing issues with her serve game but is such a fighter and has such self belief that she has managed to come through all her matches in three sets, both players on this surface if losing the first set have forced a decider more than 50% of the time so 3 sets looks likely.

Friday, 21 January 2022

Australian Open 2022 Bet (21st January)

Vondrousova V Sabalenka Over 22.5 Games @ 23-20 

Head to head is tied 2-2, Vondrousova has played steady tennis so far winning both her matches in straight sets without playing lights out tennis. Sabalenka on the other hand has had all sorts of problems being taken to three sets in both her matches so far and the troubles with her serve are not getting any better. Vondrousova’s record of winning the second set after losing the first set is over 50% and Sabalenka’s record of wining the second set after losing the first is outstanding and stands at over 75% including her two matches here so far.

Thursday, 20 January 2022

Australian Open: One Bet Tonight (20th January)

Diaz V Pegula over 20.5 games @ 6-5 

Their respective records on hard courts over the last 12 months reads Diaz 29-7 Pegula 32-13 but more importantly, in my eyes, both players win the second set over 40% of the time after losing the first set which shows neither player gives up and gives a good chance of 3 sets.

Monday, 17 January 2022

WTA Australian Open Day 2

Linette V Sevastova Over 22.5 Games @ 6-5 

Sevastova leads the head to head winning in three sets in Cincinnati back in 2016, Neither of these would class hard courts as their favourite surface. Sevastova has by far the more variation to her game but in what looks a tough match with neither player in great form I favour three sets here. 

Kvitova V Cirstea Over 22.5 Games @ 13-10 

Kvitova leads the head to head 5-3 but on outdoor hard courts it becomes 2-0 to Cirstea and including an indoor hard tournament as well then it becomes 3-0 to Cirstea but interestingly all the matches on hard courts have gone to three sets. Cirstea of one of the players on tour who can match Kvitova for power but both these players struggle for consistency during a single match let alone a tournament and three sets look the call here. 

Sanders to beat Sabalenka @ 11-4 

I am happy to go for the upset here as without doubt Sabalenka is one of if not the most powerful strikers of the ball on the women’s tour but she is suffering horrendous problems currently with her serve managing to serve close on 40 double faults in her two matches so far this season! In her two losses. Sanders is a solid if unspectacular player and Sabalenka has the ability to blow her off court so I am not interested in the handicaps just more than happy to take the value on Sanders taking advantage if Sabalenka has another off day from the service line.

Sunday, 16 January 2022

WTA Australian Open

WTA Australian Open

Tsurenko + 6.5 Games to beat Barty @ 11-10 Barty has been in excellent form this season but Tsurenko is a player that can cause any player problems as she has a strong game with no huge weaknesses only her inability to stay fit and healthy has held her back and the handicap here is too big. 

Kenin + 2.5 Games to beat Keys @ 29-25 Keys leads the head to head 3-1 but having won the Adelaide tournament it does not give her much rest time before starting again against a very difficult opponent and former winner here 2 years ago. Also the media are all jumping on Keys and the value would now in my opinion lie with her underestimated opponent. 

Martic + 3.5 Games to beat Teichmann @ 27-25 Martic has the better serve and if she serves well then this match could be closer than the odds suggest, Martics form has been poor of late but Teichmann has not exactly been flying and looking at the career win loss records on hard courts it reads Martic 26-24 compared to Teichmann 28-22 and I am happy to take a chance on Martic bouncing back to form and keeping this contest fairly close. 

Diaz + 5.5 Games to beat Jabeur @ 11-10 Looks a crazy handicap price here for Diaz as looking at the win loss records on hard courts they are almost identical with Jabeur 34-16 compared to Diaz 37-13 now although some of these matches for Diaz have been on the ITF circuit she has still won and grown in confidence, she has had an almost perfect warm up reaching the Quarter final and then losing in the second round so she comes here having won some matches but also nice and fresh, Jabeur retired in her last match. 

Kalinina + 3.5 Games to beat Pegula @ 117-100 Kalinina leads the head to head 2-0 with them both and interesting in both matches combined Kalinina has faced just 8 break points on serve but Pegula has faced 22 which may point towards Kalinina having a good read of her serve with her aggressive return game and I am expecting her to put a lot of pressure on Pegula here and at least win a set to over the handicap. 

Minnen V Cristian Over 22.5 Games @ 109-100 
Tauson V Sharma Over 20.5 Games @ 21-20 
Schmiedlova V Ostapenko Over 20.5 Games @ 21-20 
Yastremska V Brengle Over 22.5 Games @ 29-25 
Kudermetova V Liu Over 21.5 Games @ 23-20 
Linette V Sevastova Over 22.5 Games @ 29-25 
Potapova V Giorgi Over 22.5 Games @ 6-5 
Zanevska V Juvan Over 22.5 Games @ 11-10 
Ruse V Paolini Over 22.5 Games @ 5-4 
Vekic V Riske Over 22.5 Games @ 11-10