AUSTRALIAN OPEN
It looks a tough set of matches with some in form short price favourites very hard to oppose, but there does look a few ok priced favourites that I am happy to put together in a decent value multiple
Halep to beat Williams @ 1.46
Muguruza to beat Bacsinszky @ 1.47
Pliskova to beat Giorgi @ 1.60
Kvitova to beat Anismova @ 1.55
Stephens to beat Pavlyuchenkova @ 1.64
Barty to beat Sharapova @ 1.68
14.66-1
Halep has been solid so far and appears to be over her fitness concerns sand she should have too much for Williams here, Muguruza same as Halep has looked very solid and will be too powerful for Bacsinszky, Pliskova will have too much consistency for the brilliant but erratic Giorgi, Barty and Stephens should both be too consistent for their opponents who had big wins in their last matches and finally Kvitova against the young sensation who I might have looked to oppose but the price of 1.55 is crazy for a proven top class performer.
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
GASPRAYAN TO BEAT MERTENS @ 4.0
Gasparyan was in fantastic form at the end of last season reaching at the least the Quarter Finals in her last five tournaments including winning Tashkent, this seasons started off well here winning her first match beating Zhuk and if she manages her fitness then I feel she will be top 20 by the end of the season.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
GASPRAYAN 69.9% 40.4%
MERTENS 68.3% 40.4%
WOZNIACKI TO BEAT SHARAPOVA @ 1.91
Sharapova leads the head to head 6-4 but on hard courts it is Wozniacki that leads 4-3, her defensive skills and counter punching prove troublesome for Sharapova who ends up trying to hit too many winners as she cannot rally with the Dane. Sharapova’s service is not the big weapon it used to be and I can only see a Wozniacki win here providing her fitness concerns are over which they appear to be judging by her performances so far
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
WOZNIACKI 74.4% 41.8%
SHARAPOVA 65.6% 47%
POTAPOVA TO BEAT KEYS @ 4.0
Keys has an impressive record here for consistency, her main weapon is her serve but Potapova has a good return game which should be able to put pressure on and Keys can be weak on her return game and Potapova has a good service so a tie break is not out of the question. Odds of 4.0 are far too big for Potapova who is playing very well.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
POTAPOVA 68% 39.4%
KEYS 77.3% 32%
SWIATEK TO BEAT GIORGI @ 3.2
Swiatek has too bigger odds here considering how high she is on confidence currently against a very unpredictable opponent who can play lights out tennis sometimes but if her radar is off slightly then her unforced error count can be horrendous.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
SWIATEK 78.6% 32.1%
GIORGI 70% 39.1%
BOUCHARD TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 5.5
Williams leads the head to head 2-1 although they have not met since 2015, Bouchard is slowly coming back into form and Williams although impressive in beating Maria, in reality, it was expected as she was never going to trouble Williams and we did not really learn anything new from that game, more impressive was Bouchard losing just 3 games to Peng in what was expected to be a close contest and she looked in excellent form. Bouchard won’t be intimidated here and I was tempted to look at the handicap but instead feel it will go one of two ways, either Williams destroys her or what is more likely in my opinion it becomes a close match and Bouchard sneaks it.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
BOUCHARD 64.6% 42.7%
WILLIAMS 75.5% 39.1%
VIKHLYANTSEVA TO BEAT BACSINSKY @ 2.75
Vikhlyantseva has come through qualifying, Bacsinszky was very impressive in beating Kasatkina in her first match here but she has struggled for consistency since her return to the tour and I just feel she may struggle on serve here as you can see from the stats here it is something she has struggled with over the last 12 months and Vikhlyantseva playing with confidence will be a handful here.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
VIKHLYANTSEVA 67% 32%
BACSINSZKY 57.5% 33.8%
ZIDANSEK TO BEAT OSAKA @ 7.5
Bit of a left-field pick here but Zidansek’s record on hard court 46-19 over the last 12 months is impressive even though it was mainly on the ITF tour. Osaka since winning the US Open struggled and I am happy to oppose here at short odds until she can show the true consistency in her game and back up that US Open wins with a run deep into another Grand Slam.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ZIDANSEK 61.2% 44.4%
OSAKA 76.9% 40.1%
AUSTRALIAN OPEN
ANISMOVA TO BEAT TSURENKO @ 2.45
Both have been in good form with Tsurenko reaching the final at Brisbane and Anismova reaching the QF at Auckland, both came through tough first-round matches but I feel the difference here could beat Anismova’s serve which is very good when working well and Tsurenko may have trouble in making a dent in it.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ANISMOVA 73% 45.3%
TSURENKO 66.3% 46.4%
VONDROUSOVA TO BEAT MARTIC @ 2.10
Martic leads the head to head 2-0, both looked impressive in their first round matches here winning in straight sets but despite the head to head I just favour Vondrousova to come through here as although Martic is a very good player I do still feel she is underachieving for the talent she has and Vondrousova is a player I have a lot of time for as she has huge potential. Martic does struggle against left handed players as her career record of 20-21 shows and the head to head has featured a tie break in each set as both are good servers
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
VONDROUSOVA 67.3% 37.4%
MARTIC 73.8% 37.6%
FIVE FOLD
POTAPOVA 1.50
KSATKINA 1.66
BOUCHARD 1.80
GASPARYAN 1.72
BENCIC 1.72 13.26-1
Bet365
Buzarnescu to beat Williams @ 2.25
Williams is always vulnerable as we are never sure what her condition will be, Buzarnescu has had a poor start tot eh season but if she can rediscover the same form as last season then she will be. match for Williams here.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
Buzarnescu 63.4% 38.4%
Williams 64% 38.7%
Puig to beat Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.21
Puig leads the head to head 1-0, Pavlyuchenkova looked rusty in her only match this season losing in three sets, Puig meanwhile has at least played more matches and although not exactly tearing up trees I do think she has the game to cause Pavy problems with her attacking and flat hitting exposing Pavlyuchankova’s movement around the court
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
Puig 67.1% 34.7%
Pavlyuchenkova 69.6% 33.9%
Niculescu to beat Anismova @ 2.40 Anismova is a real talent but Niculescu is a very awkward opponent to play and she will I feel be able to put pressure on the youngsters serve which is a huge weapon and also her variation will cause Anismova problems.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
Niculescu 63.4% 51.1%
Anismova 73% 45.5%
Begu to beat Petkovic @ 2.30 Begu leads the head to head 3-2, Petkovic is not a player I trust on hard courts at odds on, she can have a very vulnerable serve on hard courts
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
Begu 58.5% 35.8%
Petkovic 61% 42.1%
Watson to beat Martic @ 2.50
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
Watson 66.1% 36.8%
Martic 73.1% 36.8%
Vikhlyantseva to beat Lepchenko @ 2.20
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
Vikhlyantseva 65.4% 31.9%
Lepchenko 62% 37.9%
Outright - It looks quite an open contest this year with doubts around those at the top of the market, Serena is she still good enough and although she looked ok at the Hopman Cup in Perth that in all essence is an exhibition event so to be taking a short price about her here seems crazy considering her last competitive match was back at the US Open. Angelique Kerber was someone I was interested in for her consistency and I feel she will go a long way but too short a price, Osaka, Stephens both capable but too inconsistent in my eyes. Svitolina has struggled to make it count in Grand Slams and until she does then I won't be siding with her, Kvitova can win anywhere at any time but her record here makes me wary as she has not reached the second week since 2012. Elise Mertens reached the SF last year and is a danger at a big price and not a player I would discount from going close here. Sabalenka is a major threat with her power she reminds me of Kvitova on grass the way she can just dismantle and overpower opponents but she is plenty short enough for someone lacking experience in slams., Danielle Collins is another who has the power to cause some problems for players but she might struggle with her draw. Onto the players I have backed Eugenie Bouchard reached the QF and SF in 2014/15 when she exploded onto the scene but more importantly it is somewhere she feels comfortable at despite her appalling form over the last three seasons she has never been knocked out in the first round and now she is looking more like the player of old then she is worth a punt here. Caroline Wozniacki is the defending champion and Simona Halep is the beaten finalist from last season and I am happy to back both despite the fitness concerns over both players as that is factored into the price and both are very consistent. The two outsiders are Gasparyan who was one of the most promising Russian Players before injury struck but last season she showed she retains all of her ability and is a real dark horse but does have a tough draw to overcome and Vondrousova who was in sensational form last season she has the power game to match anyone and is dark horse here to go under the radar and reach the second week.
Margarita Gasparyan 500-1
Marketa Vondrousova 250-1
Eugenie Bouchard 300-1
Caroline Wozniacki 28-1
Simona Halep 28-1
WTA HOBART
HIVES TO BEAT BENCIC @ 3.90
Bencic is a future Wimbledon champion in my eyes as she excels as has a perfect game for grass but still looks a little vulnerable on hard courts, Hives is making the jump to the main tour but has been superb on the ITF tour winning tournaments galore at the end of last season and was impressive in beating Larsson in her first match here and is valued odds to defeat Bencic.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
HIVES 68.9% 43.9%
BENCIC 65.9% 39.6%
WTA SYDNEY
HALEP TO BEAT BARTY @ 2.20
Halep leads the head to head 2-0 winning both in straight sets, Quite simply I have advised Barty outright so have to cover with Halep here at great odds, she has not played so far this season but is worth a punt here as she is world number one for a reason. But it is more because I have Barty on the outright
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
HALEP 68.5% 46.4%
BARTY 76.1% 32.6%
AUSTRALIAN OPEN QUALIFIERS
ROYG TO BEAT NARA @ 2.62
Nara leads the head to head 2-1 but she can lack power on hard courts, Royg has a good serve and more power and should really be achieving greater results on hard courts and I think Nara will struggle to break her opponent in this matchup.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ROYG 60.1% 33.3%
NARA 52.9% 36.9%
JUVAN TO BEAT MAIA @ 2.50
Main leads the head to head 1-0 winning in Auckland last week narrowly in three sets.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
JUVAN 70.1% 40.6%
MAIA 67.3% 32.3%
WTA Australian Open QUALIFIERS
Perrin to beat Witthoeft @ 2.20
Maia to beat Davis @ 2.10
Ivakhenko to beat Zadoinov @ 2.50
Hesse to beat Kerkhove @ 3.50
Gibert to beat Allertova @ 2.0
Fett to beat Zhuk @ 2.50
Zaja to beat Frech @ 2.75
WTA AUCKLAND
Blinkova to beat Zhang @ 2.25
WTA SYDNEY
Colins to beat Hsieh @ 2.20
WTA SYDNEY OUTRIGHT -
Barty has to be considered here as she loves playing this tournament and Muguruza has the powerful game to be able to match most and if she can bring her consistency to the table here then she should go close
Ashleigh Barty 16-1
Garbine Muguruza 16-1
WTA HOBART -
Yastremska is a bit of a left-field pick but in quite a low-quality field I think an upset is likely, she reached the QF on the junior circuit on both the US and OZ Open as well as the final at Wimbledon and she has broken into the worlds top 100 and not looked out of place on the main tour. Buzarnescu had a great season last year after retiring to the tour finally fit and while it will be difficult to reproduce she certainly looks a fair shout in this field.
Dayana Yastremska 50-1 (16/1)
Mihaela Buzarnescu 16-1 (20/1)
WTA SYDNEY
BERTENS TO BEAT SEVASTOVA @ 2.10
Head to head is tied 1-1, Coin toss of a match with two very evenly matched players so I am more than happy to slide with Bertens at 2.10
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
BERTENS 69.2% 43.6%
SEVASTOVA 68.7% 40.8%
TOMLJANOVIC TO BEAT GIORGI @ 2.10
Tomljanovic played well last week in Brisbane beating both Siniakova and Konta before losing to eventual finalist Pliskova in three sets, a reproduction of that form should account for Giorgi who is making her seasonal reappearance
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
TOMLJANOVIC 61.9% 45.2%
GIORGI 68.9% 39.2%
KONTAVEIT TO BEAT MERTENS @ 2.04
Head to head is tied 1-1, Mertens lost first round in Brisbane and looked very rusty. Kontaveit hits the ball hard and flat and played well reaching eh QF at Brisbane and above evens is a price I am happy to take
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KONTAVEIT 65.9% 37%
MERTENS 68.5% 40.1%
KVITOVA TO BEAT SABALENKA @ 2.25
Head to head is tied 1-1, both these players can play lights out tennis, I expect the rallies to be short and brutal. Sabalenka won Shenzen after a tough final against Riske and Kvitova losing her second match narrowly in Brisbane, I expect Kvitova to be the fresher and at generous odds she is my pick here despite being a huge fan of Sabalenka
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KVITOVA 68.3% 35.2%
SABALENKA 76.4% 35.2%
WTA HOBART
BOGDAN TO BEAT JABEUR @ 3.32
Jabeur leads the head to head 1-0, Bogdan has a decent serve and a fairly solid game and providing she improves on her performance at Shenzen last week where she won just one game in her opening round loss. Jabeur finished the season strongly but did not look particlaury great last week in Shenzen.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
BOGDAN 68% 33.2%
JABEUR 64.1% 40.5%
WTA SHENZEN
CIRSTEA TO BEAT RISKE @ 2.10
Cirstea has the power to hit through Riske who is a steady and consistent player but lacks the weight of shot.
