WTA WUHAN
GAVRILOVA TO BEAT STRYCOVA @ 11-10
Strycova leads the head to head 2-0, neither has been in great form recently but the statistics for holding serve and breaking serve are nearly identical. Gavrilova has the more ability if she is on form and I am taking her to finish the season strongly
KERBER TO BEAT KEYS @ 11-10
Kerber leads the head to head 7-2, Kerbers return game will be key here
WTA TASHKENT
KOSTYUK TO BEAT RUS @ 11-10
20-6 compared to 18-11 shows Kostyuk is very much at home on hard courts, she has the better return game than Rus and If Rus serve is a little off then she will be vulnerable as that is a huge weapon to her game.
ZVONAREVA TO BEAT ZIDANSEK @ 11-10
Zidansek is better on clay courts, Zvonareva is a better hard court player and although not operating at the level of old she should have too much nous for Zidansek who is excellent on clay but looks vulnerable on hard courts
KALINSKAYA TO BEAT DANILOVIC @ EVENS
Danilovic has had an excellent season but the majority of her victories have been on clay with a 33-9 record but she does not look as happy on hard courts and against a very exciting player in Kalinskaya then I have to favour the Russian who I expect to be far more comfortable on the surface.
GASPARYAN TO BEAT MARIA @ EVENS
Gasprayan holds serve and break her opponent more than her opponent who really is not happy on hard courts as her record of 9 wins 13 losses in the last 12 months compared to her opponents 20-8 record and she has to be avoided here
WTA GUANGZHOU
PERA TO BEAT PUTINTSEVA @ 21-20
Pera leads the head to head 1-0 having won last month at the US Open and I see no reason why the result will be any different today, as she has more power than Putintseva and I would expect her to make inroads on her opponents serve regularly
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
PERA 66.4% 34.6%
PUTINTSEVA 59.5% 37%
WTA SEOUL
BEGU TO BEAT SAKKARI @ 7-4
Begu leads the head to head 1-0 winning on hard court in 2016 at Miami. This is the first bit of form Begu has showed for weeks impressively beating Barthel and Radwanska dropping just 9 and 7 games respectively in her straight sets wins. Sakkari reached the final at San Jose end of July but since then her form has dipped although she won her first two matches here in impressive fashion although one was against clay specialist Schmiedlova and a not 100% fit Gasprayan
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
BEGU 63% 35%
SAKKARI 63% 39.9%
WTA Tokyo
Vanderweghe To Beat Barty @ 5-2
Riske To Beat Bouchard @ 11-10
Diyas To Beat Strycova @ 11-10
Vekic To Beat Stephens @ 7-4
Pavlyuchenkova To Beat Garcia @ 6-5
Cibulkova To Beat Osaka @ 2-1
WTA HIROSHIMA
KOZLOVA TO BEAT DIYAS @ 4.40
Diyas leads the head to head 2-1, stats are very similar so to be getting 4.40 on Kozlova is a crazy price and one I am more than happy to accept
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KOZLOVA 65.2% 40.2%
DIYAS 64.7% 40.3%
ZIDANSEK TO BEAT LINETTE @ 2.55
Zidansek leads the head to head 2-0 but these were both on clay, Zidansek has struggled to replicate her clay form on hard courts on the main tour but dropping Down to the ITF tour she is every bit as good and if she can start to translate that then she will make inroads on this surface on the main tour. Linette while a neat and accomplished player does not have the power to hit through Zidansek here and I expect the younger player to settle into this match and make the head to head 3-0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ZIDANSEK 66.4% 46.8%
LINETTE 67.0% 35.5%
WTA HIROSHIMA
ZHENG TO BEAT RISKE @ 2.5
Riske leads the head to head 4-1 but on hard courts she leads 2-1, Zheng’s aggressive return game will be key here as Riske does not have a big serve
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ZHENG 61.1% 43.6%
RISKE 64.3% 35.8%
LARSSON TO BEAT LINETTE @ 2.10
Head to head is tied at 1-1, stats are very close and I just favour Larsson who although not been in great form does have the greater weight of shot and if she can find some form then she will be too powerful for Linette
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
LARSSON 63.5% 34.5%
LINETTE 67.4% 35%
MINELLA TO BEAT NARA @ 2.20
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
MINELLA 63.5% 33.4%
NARA 57.9% 42.1%
HIBINO TO BEAT BOUCHARD @ 2.50 Hibino leads the head to head 1-0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
HIBINO 64.2% 33.8%
BOUCHARD 65.3% 37%
HERCOG TO BEAT HSIEH @ 2.75
Hercog leads the head to head 2-1
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
HERCOG 63% 30.7%
HSIEH 60.8% 40.6%
WTA QUEBEC
MCHALE TO BEAT YASTREMSKA @ 3.0
Yastremska while having a lot of potential is still very inconsistent and far too short a price against a proven, consistent opponent
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
MCHALE 63.5% 38.5%
YASTREM 68.2% 37.5%
DAY TO BEAT KARANTANTCHEVA @ 2.55
Day leads the head to head 2-0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
DAY 64.3% 34.5%
KARANT 55.9% 46.3%
MARINO TO BEAT MARIA @ 3.0
Marino leads the head to head 1-0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
MARINO 78.1% 34.2%
MARIA 62% 34%
US OPEN
PLISKOVA TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 3.75
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
PLISKOVA 76.4% 34.4%
WILLIAMS 80.6% 39.6%
WTA CHICAGO
FETT TO BEAT COLLINS @ 3.0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
FETT 63.5% 43%
COLLINS 62.9% 37%
MAIA TO BEAT LARSSON @ 2.0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
MAIA 66.4% 30.7%
LARSSON 63.9% 35%
BOULTER TO BEAT LEPCHENKO @ 2.37
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
BOULTER 64% 32.1%
LEPCHENKO 65.6% 36%
KIICK TO BEAT PLISKOVA @ 2.25
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KIICK 59.6% 44.2%
PLISKOVA 72.4% 30.9%
DAVIS TO BEAT BREINGLE @ 3.0
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
DAVIS 59.2% 37.2%
BRENGLE 56.6% 41.5%
PLISKOVA TO BEAT BARTY @ 2.29
MATCH TO FEATURE A TIEBREAK @ 3.25
OVER 27.5 GAMES @ 3.15
Barty leads the head to head 2-1, two matches have gone to three sets and the other featured two tie-breaks. 8 sets have been played between these two and 5 of them have been tiebreaks. 92 games are the Total games played in the three matches between these two averaging over 30 and the only time the above game spread has not been covered is when Pliskova won in two tie-breaks at Nottingham in 2016. Both players have come through their matches fairly easily especially with neither losing a set so far. The stats are very close and I expect it to mirror all their other clashes and a tight three-set match is on the cards and at 2.29 value is on Pliskova
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
PLISKOVA 76.1% 34.1%
BARTY 77.7% 35.6%
MERTENS TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 2.67
Mertens leads the head to head 1-0 winning last month in Cincinnati in straight sets, both have almost identical records wining 67% of their hard court matches this season. Mertens has reached two quarterfinals and a semi in her last three tournaments and Stephens the final in Montreal. Mertens has played the better standard of tennis so far here this week and Stephens will need to raise her level here otherwise the result will be the same as last month and 2.67 is a great price.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
MERTENS 68.1% 43.5%
STEPHENS 69.5% 30.1%
OSAKA TO BEAT SABALENKA @ 2.22
Well the cat is well and truly out of the beg with regards Sabalenka now so bang goes all the value but it has been a good run, her dynamic game has taken a few by surprise and the way she has been playing has been superb but I am going to take a chance that it ends here against a very good opponent who has the power to maybe not match her but certainly competes but with greater consistency. Osaka did not lose a game in her whitewash of Sasnovich yesterday and that was very impressive and will mean she is very fresh for this encounter, Sabalenka impressively beat Kvitova in straight sets but I am happy to avoid her now she is odds-on as she is still very inexperienced at this level and stage of a grand slam.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
OSAKA 74.7% 35.3%
SABALENKA 73.7% 37.5%
VONDROUSOVA TO BEAT TSURENKO @ 2.73
The stats are very similar here and both players were playing very well at this tournament, my one concern is Tsurenko’s physical condition as she really does seem to have a frail body when it comes to a lot of matches and although hers have been very short I still think they will take a toll. Vondrousvoa played well in defeating Bertens and for once a couple of tiebreaks went our way! I see no reason why Vondrousvoa’s price is so big here in what looks a very tight matchup as they both hit the ball hard, flat and aggressive.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
VONDROUSVOA 67.1% 40.6%
TSURENKO 65.3% 42.5%
VONDROUSOVA TO BEAT BERTENS @ 4.4
Bertens has been in fantastic form winning 9 of her last 10 matches but Vondrousova is a very underrated opponent here, similar in profile to Kvitova she hits the ball, flat, hard and can be very difficult to deal with and although Bertens is playing well 4.4 is too big a price here.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
VONDROUSOVA 67.4% 41.7%
BERTENS 68.8% 37.4%
OSTAPENKO TO BEAT SHARAPOVA @ 2.73
Sharapova leads the head to head 1-0 winning in three sets at Rome this year on clay, Ostapenko hits the ball ferociously hard and more importantly so flat as well which will test Sharapova’s movement here and also Ostapenko is very aggressive on return of serve and if Saharapova’s first serve percentage dips like it regularly can do then her second serve will likely be very vulnerable.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
OSTAPENKO 57.2% 43.8%
SHARAPOVA 72% 42.2%
KRUNIC TO BEAT FLIPKENS @ 2.21
Almost identical stats and I would have them priced up both around the evens mark here so 2.21 is too big a price in what should be a coin toss of a match
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KRUNIC 65.6% 34.3%
FLIPKENS 65.7% 35.5%
VONDROUSOUVA TO BEAT BOUCHARD @ 2.53
Bouchard has been playing well of late but she still looks very fragile confidence-wise, Vonrousvoa has suffered a bit of a dip in form lately but she has the ability to win this comfortably if she can come back to the form she was showing early in the season.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
VONDROUSOVA 67.4% 40.9%
BOUCHARD 65.5% 36.4%
TOMLJANOVIC TO BEAT SINIAKOVA @ 2.07
Siniakova has been in poor form losing in the first round in her last three tournaments but she did manage to beat the unpredictable Kontaveit in the first round here but that was more down to her opponent's very erratic play. Tomljanovic has been in decent form reaching the Quarterfinal at San Jose and the last 32 and Cincinnati where she lost to Halep, she came through her first match losing just 5 games and a reproduction of that will make her very difficult to beat.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
TOMLJANOVIC 59% 42.6%
SINIAKOVA 62.3% 38.1%
PERA TO BEAT KEYS @ 5.4
Keys has started to look a bit more in form but the way she lost to Sabalenka at Cincinnati slightly worried me as her movement was not great and she laboured to her win over Parmentier in the first round here. Pera has gone off the boil but had some good performances earlier in the season including a narrow 3 set loss to Keys where she lost 7-5 in the third set.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
PERA 65.2% 34.7%
KEYS 77.4% 33.3%
CIRSTEA TO BEAT SHARAPOVA @ 4.33
Cirstea’s all out attack game can cause problems for any player if she is on form. Sharpoava
has looked poor this season and does not seem fully focused having not reached a final all season which for her is quite a dramatic fall, she still has problems with her serve and if Cirstea can keep the unforced errors to a minimum then her attacking gameplay could cause Sharapova some issues.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
CIRSTEA 60.3% 38.4%
SHARAPOVA
71.8% 42.3%
ZVONAREVA TO BEAT SABALENKA @ 3.8
Sabalenka has been playing superbly
but she admitted she is feeling tired after all her tennis and against Bepa who still has some of the best defences
on tour she will have to play long tough points and this might cause her to try to shorten the points and go for all-out
winners which will lead to unforced
errors from the younger player.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ZVONAREVA 65.5% 44.9%
SABALENKA 73.3% 37.4%
US OPEN
JAKUPOVIC TO BEAT TEICHMANN @ 2.31
Teichmann is more at home on clay and while Jakupovic is no star I think the difference here will be her return game which is going to make holding serve forTeichmann very difficult as she does have a weak serve anyway.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
JAKUPOVIC 64.9% 39.7%
TEICHMANN 63.6% 32.9%
KUZNETSOVA TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 2.10
This will be a very close match, both these veterans can still turn it on just to as often as they used to, as you can see from the stats Williams is just ahead in both categories but Kuznetsova is the player who can raise her level for the big matches and as is well known Venus with her medical issues can fall through the floor during anytime so in a very close match up there are more positives to Kuznetsova at over Evens
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KUZNETSOVA 68.1% 39.1%
WILLIAMS 69.5% 41.1%
HERCOG TO BEAT LIU @ 2.12
Both players are happier on clay but Hercog does the have game to transfer over to hard courts as she has greater power in her shots and a far better serve and if she can sort of her physical issues then she could surprise a few here this week.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
HERCOG 66.9% 31.1%
LIU 55.1% 44%
SASNOVICH TO BEAT BENCIC @ 2.0
Sansovich has been in great form and reached the last 16 at New Haven, is 7-3 from her last 10 matches and 23-12 over the season on hard courts compared to Bencic’s 5-5 and 19-7. Bencic is such a good player but she lacks maturity as was shown in her defeat to Sabalenka who played well but the way Bencic fell apart and appeared to lack ideas was identical of how she was a couple of seasons back after breaking through and against an opponent in great form she will struggle if she has that same mindset here.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
SASNOVICH 63.7% 38.7%
BENCIC 68.5% 35.3%
COLLINS TO BEAT SABALENKA @ 3.80
People now are starting to take notice of Sabalenka so the value might vanish from her for a while after her New Haven title win, She has played a huge number of matches and admitted to feeling tired in last week exertions and against Danielle Collins that won't be a good thing, Collins 41-18 compared to Sabalenka’s 32-13 win-loss
record this season shows just how good these two youngsters are. Collins reached the SF at San Jose before falling first round in both tourneys since but I just feel she will be fresher than Sabalenka who despite having the huge power she can still be erratic and her price is too tight here.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
COLLINS 63.6% 37%
SABALENKA 73.3% 36.7%
ZIDANSEK TO BEAT MLADENOVIC @ 2.66
Maldenovic has not been playing well of late with first-round losses in Cincy, New Haven and Montreal and San Jose. Zidansek is more a clay court player but her results this year have been excellent on all surfaces as shown by her win-loss
record on hard over the last 12 months of 1606 compared to her opponents 6-19
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
ZIDANSEK 54.5% 40.3%
MLADENOVIC 63.6% 33.1%
PERA TO BEAT PUTINTSEVA @ 2.02
Pera’s serve is a big difference here as Puntintseva really can struggle on serve and Pera I suspect will be able to overpower her opponent in this matchup
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
PERA 65.6% 34%
PUTINTSEVA 59.6% 37.3%
RUS TO BEAT CIBULKOVA @ 3.80
Rus has come through qualifying here and Cibulkova looked very poor in her defeat last week to Goerges where she only won 4 matches, Rus has a terrific serve and that should keep her competitive in a match where her opponent looks very much out of form.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SEVE
RUS 70.3% 38.7%
CIBULKOVA 62.4% 39.3%
GIBBS TO BEAT NAVARRO @ 3.70
Navarro reached the final but looking in detail it was hard for her no too as she one opponent withdrew and two others retired in the first set!! So, in fact, she only completed two matches at the tournament and lost one of those so don’t read too much into the fact she was a finalist last week. Gibbs is consistent but similar to Riske she can struggle against the power players, Navarro does not have that power so this could turn into a bit of a long match with neither player having the power to hit through the other and I will side with the consistency of Gibbs causing an upset.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
GIBBS 63.9% 40.2%
NAVARRO 66.1% 36.4%
RISKE TO BEAT CIRSTEA @ 2.0
Cirstea leads the head to head 3-2, her all-out attacking game can work for matches but very rarely does it come off for the whole tournament which means Cirtea can get the odd good result but struggles for consistency. Riske, on the other hand, is very consistent if very unspectacular, she does not have the game to match the power players who can hit through her but against the likes of Cirstea her consistency and defence will put Cirstea under severe pressure to hit winners which should lead to a lot of unforced errors.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
RISKE 63.6% 35.7%
CIRSTEA 59.5% 38.9%
KALINSKAYA TO BEAT GOERGES @ 4.2
While Goerges is rightly the favourite here, Kalinskaya is a very promising player who is quite capable of causing an upset with her very aggressive return game capable of causing problems for Goerges on serve.
HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE
KALINSKAYA 70% 43.3%
GOERGES 77.2% 29.3%
OUTRIGHT ELENA SVITOLINA 21 - She has won 5 titles so far this season and looked every inch a top class player and now I am taking her to finally transfer that form into the Grand Slam arena
SIMONA HALEP 9 - Top seed and world number 1, finally won her maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros this year and has looked in excellent form on the North American hard courts winning the title Montreal and reaching the final in Cincinnati, my only reservation is she pulled out of last weeks tournaments citing an injury(Achilles) but I presume this is a precaution and I can see her going deep in the tournament
DARIA KASATKINA 34 - Supremely talented and most peoples choice to be a future Grand slam and world number 1, has all the ability in the world and no real weakness to her game the only thing she lacks is maturity but if she hits form here then this will look a decent price as she reached the QF at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon
