Kanepi leads the head to head 1-0 winning in three sets last season at Melbourne. Kanepi has played well so far this week only dropping one set in her 3 matches so far. Sabalenka still hing issues with her serve game but is such a fighter and has such self belief that she has managed to come through all her matches in three sets, both players on this surface if losing the first set have forced a decider more than 50% of the time so 3 sets looks likely.
Saturday, 22 January 2022
Friday, 21 January 2022
Head to head is tied 2-2, Vondrousova has played steady tennis so far winning both her matches in straight sets without playing lights out tennis. Sabalenka on the other hand has had all sorts of problems being taken to three sets in both her matches so far and the troubles with her serve are not getting any better. Vondrousova’s record of winning the second set after losing the first set is over 50% and Sabalenka’s record of wining the second set after losing the first is outstanding and stands at over 75% including her two matches here so far.
Thursday, 20 January 2022
Their respective records on hard courts over the last 12 months reads Diaz 29-7 Pegula 32-13 but more importantly, in my eyes, both players win the second set over 40% of the time after losing the first set which shows neither player gives up and gives a good chance of 3 sets.
Monday, 17 January 2022
Sevastova leads the head to head winning in three sets in Cincinnati back in 2016, Neither of these would class hard courts as their favourite surface. Sevastova has by far the more variation to her game but in what looks a tough match with neither player in great form I favour three sets here.
Kvitova V Cirstea Over 22.5 Games @ 13-10
Kvitova leads the head to head 5-3 but on outdoor hard courts it becomes 2-0 to Cirstea and including an indoor hard tournament as well then it becomes 3-0 to Cirstea but interestingly all the matches on hard courts have gone to three sets. Cirstea of one of the players on tour who can match Kvitova for power but both these players struggle for consistency during a single match let alone a tournament and three sets look the call here.
Sanders to beat Sabalenka @ 11-4
I am happy to go for the upset here as without doubt Sabalenka is one of if not the most powerful strikers of the ball on the women’s tour but she is suffering horrendous problems currently with her serve managing to serve close on 40 double faults in her two matches so far this season! In her two losses. Sanders is a solid if unspectacular player and Sabalenka has the ability to blow her off court so I am not interested in the handicaps just more than happy to take the value on Sanders taking advantage if Sabalenka has another off day from the service line.
Sunday, 16 January 2022
WTA Australian Open
Tsurenko + 6.5 Games to beat Barty @ 11-10 Barty has been in excellent form this season but Tsurenko is a player that can cause any player problems as she has a strong game with no huge weaknesses only her inability to stay fit and healthy has held her back and the handicap here is too big.
Kenin + 2.5 Games to beat Keys @ 29-25 Keys leads the head to head 3-1 but having won the Adelaide tournament it does not give her much rest time before starting again against a very difficult opponent and former winner here 2 years ago. Also the media are all jumping on Keys and the value would now in my opinion lie with her underestimated opponent.
Martic + 3.5 Games to beat Teichmann @ 27-25 Martic has the better serve and if she serves well then this match could be closer than the odds suggest, Martics form has been poor of late but Teichmann has not exactly been flying and looking at the career win loss records on hard courts it reads Martic 26-24 compared to Teichmann 28-22 and I am happy to take a chance on Martic bouncing back to form and keeping this contest fairly close.
Diaz + 5.5 Games to beat Jabeur @ 11-10 Looks a crazy handicap price here for Diaz as looking at the win loss records on hard courts they are almost identical with Jabeur 34-16 compared to Diaz 37-13 now although some of these matches for Diaz have been on the ITF circuit she has still won and grown in confidence, she has had an almost perfect warm up reaching the Quarter final and then losing in the second round so she comes here having won some matches but also nice and fresh, Jabeur retired in her last match.
Kalinina + 3.5 Games to beat Pegula @ 117-100 Kalinina leads the head to head 2-0 with them both and interesting in both matches combined Kalinina has faced just 8 break points on serve but Pegula has faced 22 which may point towards Kalinina having a good read of her serve with her aggressive return game and I am expecting her to put a lot of pressure on Pegula here and at least win a set to over the handicap.
Minnen V Cristian Over 22.5 Games @ 109-100
Tauson V Sharma Over 20.5 Games @ 21-20
Schmiedlova V Ostapenko Over 20.5 Games @ 21-20
Yastremska V Brengle Over 22.5 Games @ 29-25
Kudermetova V Liu Over 21.5 Games @ 23-20
Linette V Sevastova Over 22.5 Games @ 29-25
Potapova V Giorgi Over 22.5 Games @ 6-5
Zanevska V Juvan Over 22.5 Games @ 11-10
Ruse V Paolini Over 22.5 Games @ 5-4
Vekic V Riske Over 22.5 Games @ 11-10
Monday, 11 October 2021
KERBER V KASATKINA OVER 21.5 GAMES 4-5 - Kasatkina leads the head to head 4-2 on hard courts but Kerber looking back in some sort of form should be able to keep this close
KALINSKAYA V GOLUBIC OVER 21.5 GAMES 10-11
KONTAVEIT V ANDREESCU OVER 21.5 GAMES 10-11 - If Andreescu’s fitness can hold up then she will prove competitive against eh hard hitting Kontaveit
JABEUR V COLLINS OVER 21.5 GAMES 17-20 - Collins should overpower Jabeur but I expect it to to three sets or at least two tight sets
BADOSA GIBERT V GAUFF OVER 21.5 GAMES 10-11 - The young American is still quite unpredictable and her opponent is very underrated
KREJICKOVA V ANISMOVA OVER 21.5 GAMES 17-20
William Hill 41-93-1
Sunday, 10 October 2021
KVITOVA TO BEAT AZARENKA @ 11-10
Kvitova leads the head to head 5-3 winning their most recent meeting at St Petersburg in straight sets in 2019 and the all the other meetings too place over 6 years ago! Almost identical records on hard courts over the last 50 matches with Kvitova 32-18 and Azarenka 33-17 last ten they have identical 7-3 win loss records. I just feel Kvitova if she is on form is virtually unplayable and although these occasions are rarer at odds against and with the match on her racket I am happy to take a chance here at generous odds.
BEGU TO BEAT ROGERS @ 11-8
Similar to the above match both have identical win loss records over their last 50 matches on hard courts 28-22 and recent form is very similar, Begu might be able to expose Rogers movement with her variation and this is where I expect her to get on top during the match.
COLLINS TO BEAT JABEUR @ 6-5
Colling leads the head to head 1-0 winning a tight three set match on clay and I expect the same today, she has the power to hit through Jabeur but Jabeur has the skill to be able to keep it tight and I expect Collins to come through in three sets with her power.
BADOSA TO BEAT GAUFF @ 11-10
KALINSKAYA TO BEAT GOLUBIC @ 11-8
Thursday, 7 October 2021
SCHMIEDLOVA V KONJUH OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS
Almost identical win loss records on outdoor hard courts with Schmiedlova 31-19 over her last 50 and Konjuh 33-17 points towards a close match as does their recent win loss of both 6 wins 4 losses.
GARCIA V FLIPKENS OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS
Two of the three head to head matches have covered this spread the only match not was when they met on clay which is by far Flipkens worst surface, if Garcia can serve well then she can keep this tight and Flipkens if normally very good if going behind in a match.
SEVASTOVA V HERCOG OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS
Sevastova leads the head to head 3-1 but both times they have met on hard courts the spread has been covered in two tight sets and no reason to expect anything different tonight.
TREVISAN V BOUZKOVA OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 5-6
Trevisian in better recent form but Bouzkova the better player on hard courts.
ZHENG V FRECH OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 5-6
Head to head the only time they met was a three set match between two very closely matched players.
Good luck if you follow.
Wednesday, 6 October 2021
WATSON TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 23-10
Watson although limited does have consistency and I am always happy to oppose Stephens when it is not a Grand Slam
RUSE TO BEAT CORNET @ 13-10
Cornet can struggle on hard courts and Ruse has the game to cause her problems here and the odds look the wrong way around
BRENGLE TO BEAT HSIEH @ 11-10
Brengle is consistent and steady and although Hsieh has great variation I take the American on home soil to come through due to her consistency here
KALININA TO BEAT ROGERS @ 5-2
Shelby Rogers can hit winners from all over the court but she is woefully inconsistent and erratic and Kalinina’s price is far too big here.
Tuesday, 31 August 2021
US OPEN 2021 - WEDNESDAY
KALININA TO BEAT KERBER @ 10-3
Kerber sneaked past the youngster in her first match here and looked very uneasy, Kalinina looked good after a shaky first set and only lost 2 more games in taking the final 2 sets and she has the power to cause Kerber problems here.
RAKHIMOVA TO BEAT ALEXANDROVA @ 5-1
Rakhimova looked in good form in defeating Mladenovic in three sets here and while she will need to be at her best to defeat her more favoured opponent she does certainly posses the talent to cause her some problems and is too large a price.
STEPHENS TO BEAT GAUFF @ 23-10
Stephens done us a good turn by beating Keys in her first match here and she normally does save her best for the Grand Slams, Gauff while extremely talented is still prone to the odd unpredictable match and Stephens great value to use her experience here to cause an upset.
Sunday, 29 August 2021
OUTRIGHT WINNER - Like a lot of the grand Slams this years US Open looks quite an open contest, we have the usual favourites in Barty (Poor Olympics and potential tough opener) Osaka (Mental health issues not sure how competitive she will be) Sabalenka (Poor record in Grand Slams so far) Swiatek (Far happier on clay but could be a threat but too short a price) Pliskova big serve reached Wimbledon final but nerves got the better of her, she is desperate for a Grand Slam title but might be putting too much pressure on herself. Krejcikova, Gauff, Badosa, Bencic next in the betting but all have something to prove - The outright bets I like the look of are below:
Karolina Pliskova 16-1 She has the serve and power to be able to go far providing pressure does not get to her.
Garbine Muguruza 25-1 Powerful stroke play, lacks variety but that does not matter on these hard courts when she could smash her way through to at least the QF if she can overcome a tough first round draw against Vekic.
Danielle Collins 40-1 All out attack who can match any player on tour if she is on form, providing she can stay fit she with home support she could cause a bit of an upset.
Victoria Azarenka 50-1 Her issues off court have been well documented but she does have the experience and on her day is still a world class player, with so many issues surrounding the market leaders she is worth chancing at good odds.
FIRST ROUND MATCHES
Giorgi to beat Halep @ Evens
Giorgi hits the ball flat, hard and very attacking she can make a lot of unforced errors but if she has a day where things go right then she will be a very tough match up for Halep considering both their recent form which favours Giorgi where she won the Rogers cup.
Golubic to beat Andreescu @ 7-4
Andreescu has been in poor form and also terrible problems with injury over the last 18months and looked very short of confidence in her recent losses at the Cincinnati open first round to Muchova in straight sets and back home at the Rogers cup she managed only one win before losing to Jabeur. Golubic is a decent price here to cause what some people would see as an upset.
Konjuh to beat Fernandez @ 4-5
Konjuh has come through qualifying here without losing a set also reached the SF at San Jose and providing her serve works well then she should prove too much for a player with potential but who looks a little out of form currently in Fernandez.
Stephens to beat Keys @ Evens
Stephens regulary ups her game in the Grand Slams and she has a 4-2 win loss record against Keys on hard courts it becomes 2-0 and her athleticism should negate some of Keys powerful groundstrokes and force Keys into playing one more shot which could result in more errors from Keys
Ruse to beat Vondrousova @ 3-1
Vondrousova lost the Olympic final and I suspect she may struggle for the rest of the season, Ruse has been in good form coming through qualifying and her price is far too short against an opponent who can sometimes crack during pressure moments.
Thursday, 19 August 2021
PLISKOVA TO BEAT PEGULA @ EVENS
Big serving Czech should provide too much power for Pegula if her serve if fit and firing
KVITOVA TO BEAT JABEUR @ 11-10
Kvitova has become even more unpredictable of late but at these odds she is worth taking a chance as while Jabeur is a consistent and good player she won’t be a match for Kvitova is the former Wimbledon champ can find her form
Monday, 19 July 2021
GERLACH TO BEAT COLLINS @ 8-1
Collins retired in her semi final match at the weekend against Kailinia with a very heavily strapped arm that looked to be slightly impeding her service arm, she has be taken on here with fitness concerns.
RAKHIMOVA TO BEAT DANILOVIC @ 11-10
Both players are decent on clay, but Rakhimova looked in decent form losing last week to eventual finalist Burel and she should prove too strong for Danilovic here.
Monday, 12 July 2021
Schmiedlova to beat Begu @ 7-4 Bara to beat Errani @ 13-8 Haas to beat Kozlova @ 19-13 Gorgodze to beat Putintseva @ 4-1
Waltert to beat Diyas @ 15-13 Melnikova to beat Zidansek @ 10-1
Min to beat Stosur @ 13-10 Diatchenko to beat Stojanovic @ 13-8