Friday, 13 July 2018

ITF BUDAPEST: PANOVA TO BEAT KUZMOVA @ 9-2

Pro Tennis Trader
ITF BUDAPEST

PANOVA TO BEAT KUZMOVA @ 9-2

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

PANOVA 68.9% 37% 10-6(132-97)

KUZMOVA 67.8% 36.9% 10-3(28-20)

Stats are so close on this match up but I have to favour Panova at far bigger odds than what she should be due to her form being excellent, she was beating Khromacheva when her opponent retired and she easily defeated Galfi in straight sets on Thursday and she is playing with a high level of confidence as this is her sixth match here this week but only once has she been taken to three sets and that was in qualifying. 


ALEXANDRANOVA TO BEAT JABEUR @ 13-8

HOLD SERE BREAK SERVE

ALEXANDRANOVA 61.2% 36.1% 7-6(75-45)

JABEUR 67% 38.2% 8-6(84-40)

Alexandranova leads the head to head 4-1 including winning both times they have met on clay, both have looked in decent form this week but I have to favour Alexandranova due to the head to head record as she is clearly a player that Jabeur struggle to come to terms with.

Thursday, 12 July 2018

ITF BUDAPEST: VONDROUSOVA TO BEAT YASTREMSKA

Marketa Vondrous
ITF BUDAPEST

VONDROUSOVA TO BEAT YASTREMSKA @ 2.080

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

YASTREMSKA 66.3% 49.5% 24-6(43-19)

VONDROUSOVA 70.7% 48.7% 11-3(40-15)

Yastremska has been playing superbly well since winning Rome and she came through in three sets here yesterday but Vondrousova is a class above opponent that what she has been playing as shown by the fact when Vondrousova has played on the ITF tour she has won her last 11 matches, I expect her to overpower her opponent at generous odds



PANOVA TO BEAT GALFI @ 2.340

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

PANOVA 68.9% 37% 9-6(131-97)

GALFI 61.9% 42.4% 9-7(33-28)

Panova came through as expected against Khromacheva but not in the way I wanted as she was a set up and her opponent retired! Galfi is a good young player who has suffered a bit with injuries lately and clay would not be her favoured surface and Panova in my eyes should be favourite here as she is more at ease on the surface. 


ITF CONTREXVILLE

KALINSKAYA TO BEAT KOZLOVA @ 2.040

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

KALINSKAYA  63.5% 44% 9-6(46-23)

KOZLOVA 59.4% 47.2% 6-5(72-41)

Kozlova managed to win yesterday but her form still looks ragged. Kalinskaya surprised me with how well she played in defeating Cakarevic and a reporidction of that form will be enough to see off Kozlova here.

Tuesday, 10 July 2018

ITF CONTREXEVILLE: HESSE TO BEAT DODIN @ 11-5 (WHILL)

Pro Tennis Trader
ITF CONTREXEVILLE

HESSE TO BEAT DODIN @ 11-5 (WHILL)

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

HESSE 57.3% 36.1% 7-10(74-94)

DODIN 66.2% 39% 2-6(32-28)

Neither player would class clay as their favourite surface but Hesse did win her last tournaments she contested on clay in Spain before Wimbledon. Dodin has had a bit of a horror year with 7 first round exits out of just 13 tournaments and her ranking has plummeted as a result and she really does look very short of confidence at this moment in time and she relies heavily on her serve and if that does not fire then she could well struggle today against a moderate but consistent opponent who will be high on confidence after her last tournament victory


SCHNYDER TO BEAT GOLUBIC @ 11-8 (LADBROKES)

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

SCHNYDER 66.7% 45.7% 22-11(152-91)

GOLUBIC 62.3% 41.9% 9-8(110-73)

Since returning to the tour Schnyder has looked rejuvenated and less hot headed, she always had so much talent but would let her he’d go down and beat herself up too much when things were going wrong, her variation and control and second to none on the tour and her drop set is still one of the best around. Golubic is a decent player who is very comfortable at the net but not in the same league as Schnyder with regards her variations and to be able to get odds against for the Veteran looks a steal here. 

CEKAREVIC TO BEAT KALINSKAYA @ 3-1 (BET365)

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

CEKAREVIC 61.1% 38.3% 30-19(44-33)

KALINSKAYA 62.6% 43.9% 9-7(45-23)

Cekarevic has been in excellent form of late in her last four tournaments all on clay she has reached at least the quarter final in three of them. Kalinskaya made a big breakthrough last season but has struggled a little bit this season as her game is more known and she is struggling to come up with ways to counter this, although hshe is clear favourite here the fact her opponent is playing so well on clay recently and Kalinskaya has not played on clay makes the 3-1 available a great price. 



KORPATSCH TO BEAT KOZLOVA @ 6-4 (BV)

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

KORPATSCH 55.3% 47% 23-13(102-54)

KOZLOVA 58.7% 47.4% 8-6(71-41)

Korpatsch is back on clay and that is by far and away her favourite surface, she has an excellent return game to compensate for her weak serve. Kozlova has been in horrendous form losing nine of her last 10 matches and her one win was defeating defending champion Ostapenko at Roland Garros but she is playing very poorly currently and u against a clay courts specialist she has been priced up on that one win and not the other nine losses! 



GIBERT TO BEAT BOUCHARD @ 6-5

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

GIBERT 62.6% 42.4% 14-11(62-37)

BOUCHARD 58% 37.4% 0-3(62-39)

Bouchard managed to get some wins under her belt on the grass but heading back onto the clay she is likely to struggle as she has yet to win a game on this surface so far this season and looks severely lacking in confidence, even when she gets herself into winning positions she does not look like the old Bouchard. Gibert is a player of potential who does everything well without excelling at anything in particular and her consistency as she hold serve more often and breaks her opponents more often than Bouchard should prove too much for Bouchard who is likely to blow hot and cold during this match.


ITF BUDAPEST



PANOVA TO BEAT KHROMACHEVA @ 19-10 (WHILL)

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

PANOVA 68.6% 37.1% 10-7(130-97)

KHROMACHEVA 60.9% 43.6% 10-9(141-79)

Panova leads the head to head 1-0, Khromacheva is a player I have watched a lot of and was hotly tipped to become a top player but she is struggling to kick on mainly due to her serve which is very poor and in today’s match up that could possibly be her undoing as Panova has a decent serve but a fairly weak return game but against Khromacheva here as her serve is so poor she wont need to be anything special to apply pressure. The price is far too big considering Khromacheva can be so erratic and Panova has already played three matches here this week. 

WTA Wimbledon Tuesday: BERTENS TO BEAT GOERGES @ EVENS

Kiki Bertens
Wimbledon 2018 - 


BERTENS TO BEAT GOERGES @ EVENS

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

BERTENS 69.3% 37.9%

GOERGES 80.9% 32.7%

Bertens leads the head to head 2-0 although both were on clay which is her best surface by far. Neither player in the past would put down grass as their favourite surface with their respective win loss records throughout their career standing at Goerges 19-18 and Bertens 11-14 but looking at the stats over the last 12 months revels both players are in fact playing with such confidence that both have adapted to grass quite well with Goerges 6-2 Bertens 5-2. Goerges has had a far easier route here only playing one player ranked inside the top 50 in the world Strycova and she managed to win that match 8-6 in the third set. Bertens has beaten two top  10 ranked opponents so far in Venus Williams 8-6 in the 3rd set and that seems to have given her so much confidence that she beat a lot of peoples favourite for the title Karolina Plskova in straight sets on Monday. Given the recent form of both these two then I have to side with Bertens who has more variation to her game and stronger return of serve which I think could prove telling in this match up. 


BUDAPEST ITF 

CADANTU TO BEAT RYBAKINA @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

RYBAKINA  63.5% 37.2%

CADANTU 50.3% 51.1%

Respective win loss records on clay reads Rybakina 11-7 (6-6 over 12 months) Cadantu 179-124 (15-12 over 12 months) Neither player has been in great form but Cadantu is a real streetfighter, she annoys opponents,  tries to put them off and just generally becomes a pest on court. Rybankina while having potential is very inexperienced on clay and coming up against Cadantu here is a very difficult ask even if she is not in great form. Cadantu’s aggressive return game will put the youngster under pressure and I have Cadantus priced up a shade of odds on so will happily take the 11-10 on offer.


DULGHERU TO BEAT YASTREMSKA @ 12-5

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

DULGHERU  60.% 50.9%

YASTREMSKA 66.3% 40.1%

Dulgheru leads the head to head 1-0 having won earlier this year in straight sets on hard court. Both these two have been in dense form, Dulgheru reaching the last 64 at Wimbledon managing to win 4 matches before losing to Venus Williams in three sets, Yastremska won Rome impressively last week not dropping a set but to put it into context she did not play an opponent ranked in the world top 200 as it was a very weak field. I feel the bookmakers have priced up as a little bit a of a reaction to this as well as her potential. Both players have good records on clay with Dulgheru 27-11 and Yastremska 23-6 over the last 12 months, while I do make Yastremska favourite here I certainly do not make her the heavy odds on favourite she is and Dulgheru at 12-5 is way overpriced.

JAKUPOVIC TO BEAT JABEUR @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

JAKUPOVIC 60.9% 44.5%

JABEUR 67.4% 37.1%

Jabeur leads the head to head 3-0, respective win loss records on clay Jabeur 82-40 (6-7) Jakupovic 109-91 (16-10) Jakupovic has been in good form recently on grass, reaching the Quarter Finals at both Birmingham and Nottingham Jabeur has also had impressive results on the grass but hers were on the circuit and not the main tour when she only beat one player ranked inside the worlds top 200, Jakupovic meanwhile defeated 4 players ranked inside the worlds top 100 including two top 20 players. 

Monday, 9 July 2018

MONDAY WIMBLEDON 2018: GIORGI TO BEAT MAKAROVA @ 11-10

GIORGI
MONDAY WIMBLEDON

GIORGI TO BEAT MAKAROVA @ 11-10 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

GIORGI 72% 33.8%

MAKAROVA 70.1% 27.6%

Both of them are happy on grass, Makarova has a win loss record 53-28 compared to Giorgi’s 42-21 record. So far both of them have been impressive in beating opponents ranked higher than themselves but where I think this match will be won and lost is the return of serve, Giorgi has an explosive game and she tends to play all out attack which when it fires becomes very difficult to play against and I think this will unsettle Makarova today who despite having a lot of talent does also have a severe lack of self belief. 


VEKIC TO BEAT GOERGES @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

VEKIC  74.9% 30.8%

GOERGES 79.9% 32%

Goerges leads the head to head 1-0 winning on clay in straight sets back in 2015. Vekic is finally starting to fulfil on her promise that she showed as a 17 year old and she feels very much at home here having been based here for some time. Vekic has been mightly impressive so far this week not dropping a set in coming through her 3 matches. Goerges has had a tougher route to get here a tight two set match over Puig followed by a three setter against Lapko and then a marathon 3 setter against Strycova that she won 10-8 in the decider. Win loss records on grass are 18-18 for Goerges compared to Vekic 23-17 and similar to the Giorgi match then I think these odds are the wrong way round. 

BENCIC + 4 GAMES TO BEAT KERBER @ 6-5

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

KERBER 76.7% 39.7%

BENCIC 73.7% 34.3%

Bencic leads the head to head 3-1 although they have yet to meet on grass, Three years ago Bencic was the brightest young player on the circuit and touted as a future Wimbledon champion due to her comfort on grass but since then injuries and a loss of confidence have hampered her rise but this season she is returning to show some of that potential. Win loss records for them both on grass is impressive Bencic 35-15 Kerber 61-25. So far at Wimbledon both have been quite impressive but more so bench as she has overcome Garcia with her fantastic serve and then grass specialist Riske before defeating top 30 Navarro yesterday. Kerber came through a tough match against Zvonareva in the first round then a three setter against Lui where she looked in trouble but as Kerber does so many times she found a way to win then against Osaka she was comfortable against an opponent who lacked belief she could trouble her. Taking the head to head into account, Bencic is the underdog so can play without too much pressure and her ability on grass means I am leaning towards a tight encounter with Kerber’s exceptional defensive skills and determination just getting her through in the end but Bencic with the 4 game handicap start is my bet.

Saturday, 7 July 2018

Wimbledon 2018: DIATCHENKO TO BEAT OSTAPENKO @ 3-1

DIATCHENKO
DIATCHENKO TO BEAT OSTAPENKO @ 3-1

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

Diatchenko 70.9% 42.3%

Ostapenko 65.5% 40.8%

Grass court win loss records read 17-10 Ostapenko against 18-11 Diatchenko so they are very similar in that regard, Ostapenko plays very aggressive and hits the ball tremendously hard but can be very wayward and does not have the consistency in her game at the minute. Diatchenko is a player of great potential who has had her career pretty much ruined by injuries over the last 3 years but she has worked her way back up into the top 100 from 350+ and with her results this week she should. Enter the top 50 and it is well deserved. Both players have been impressive here Ostapeno winning both her matches in straight sets and Diachenko coming through 5 matches so far with her three in qualifying which included a mighty impressive 6-2 6-2 win over Sofya Zhuk another promising Russian then the biggie when she overcame Maria Sharapova in three sets and more impressive was the way she backed that up beating Sofia Kenin and dropping just 4 games in the process. This match is quite a tough one to call as Ostapenko has the power to hit through her opponents if on a going day but I have been very impressed with how Diatchenko has stuck in games when behind and fought back, slight concern over her fitness but weighing it up she is a player playing at the top of her game and with sky high confidence so to be able to get 3-1 against a player who despite her successes is still relatively inexperienced is a no brainer for me. 

SASNOVICH TO BEAT GAVRILOVA @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

SASNOVICH 60.8% 33.3%

GAVRILOVA 69.2% 30.3%

Gavrilova leads the head to head 1-0 winning on clay in Rome 2015, neither player would class grass as their favourite surface with their respective win loss records less than impressive Gavrilova 14-17 against Sasnovich 9-9 but so far in this tournament both has come through what looked fairly tough matches, but on closer inspection Gavrilova beat Stosur and Stosur has always been poor on grass and people still think of her as a top player but the simple fact is she is about to drop out of the world top 100 so that result was expected, Sasnovich beat Kvitova and was impressive with her variation and the Czech just imploded in the final set which she is always capable of doing but Sasnovich held it together well and her greater skill and variation should help her today against an opponent not particularly happy on the green stuff 

Thursday, 5 July 2018

Wimbledon 2018: MLADENOVIC TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 10-3

MLADENOVIC - Wimbledon 2018
MLADENOVIC TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 10-3
Mladenovic has a decent record on grass 34 wins to 21 losses, she has a good serve which if working can be a real asset and is comfortable around the net due to her expertise at doubles, Williams records speaks for itself but she did look rusty against Rus and will need to up her level against a good opponent.

WICKMAYER TO BEAT VEKIC @ 9-4
Wickmayer leads the head to head 2-0, both accomplished grass court players but I have to favour the head to head record of Wickmayer here at generous odds

Tuesday, 3 July 2018

Wimbledon 2018

RADWANSKA
RADWANSKA TO BEAT SAFAROVA @ EVENS

JABEUR TO BEAT SINIAKOVA @ 13-10
Siniakova leads the head to head 4-0 but on grass their respective records are 10-11 compared to Jabeur 34-10 on grass.

BLINKOVA TO BEAT BERTENS @ 2-1

BRENGLE TO BEAT GIORGI @ 11-4

Brengle leads the head to head 3-2 including winning the only time they have met on grass, she is more reliable and less spectacular than Giorgi but is certainly more consistent. 

GAVRILOVA TO BEAT STOSUR @ EVENS

Stosur leads the h2h 3-2 but all her 3 wins have been on clay which is her best surface, Gavrilova won both times on hard courts and is better on grass.

Friday, 29 June 2018

Wimbledon 2018: First Round

Rus
RUS TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 8-1
Williams maybe a little rusty and Rus has a tremendous serve using her height to great advantage and if Williams if just a little off the boil then this price could look huge and is worth taking a chance on. 

SWAN TO BEAT BUGU 7-4
Neither player particularly good on grass but Swan has the greater potential and begun looked totally shot of confidence in losing to Giorgi at Eastbourne in straight sets. 

GIORGI TO BEAT SEVASTOVA @ 6-5
39-21 win loss record compared to 18-13 and Giorgi is a fearsome hitter and a match for almost any player in the world when she is on song as she hits the ball so flat and hard and plays well on grass. 

PUIG TO BEAT GOERGES @ 11-4
Puig leads the head to head 4-1 including winning on grass and has the better grass court record. 

STEFKOVA TO BEAT BERTENS @ 7-2
Bertens is awful on clay as her record of 7-14 shows, so far this year she has won just one match ingress, Stefkova has come through Wimbledon qualifying and is value to cause what many people believe would be an upset here. 

KUZNETSOVA TO BEAT STRYCOVA @ 7-4
50-27 compared to 51-31 win loss record on grass, Kuznetsova leads the head to head 2-0 including a win here at Wimbledon albeit in 2008! Strycova has been in the better form but I am taking Kuznetsova to raise her game and she has the all round variation to be able to defeat Strycova.


TUESDAY

BOGDAN TO BET ARRUBARRENA @ 11-10
Arrubarrena leads the h2h record 1-0, neither player has great records on grass but Bogdan has the more powerful game that should be more suited to this surface. 

ZVONAREVA TO BEAT KERBER @ 5-1
Zvonareva easily came through qualifying and as a former finalist here feels very much at home and 5-1 is a craxy price is she is able to perform to anything like her previous form which she has done in the qualifiers.


BENCIC TO BEAT GARCIA @ 12-5
32-15 against 24-15 records on grass, Garcia has a wonderful serve but Bencic has the better all round game including at the net and I am surprised to see her such a big price.

COLLINS TO BEAT MERTENS @ 9-4
Collins has an excellent serve and if it firing then she could prove a handful here for Mertens who is not a natural on grass

FETT TO BEAT KASATKINA @ 11-2
Fett has the bigger weapons and more powerful game and I think at these prices she is a great bet to overpower Kasatkina

Additional bets:

CORNET TO BEAT CIBULKOVA @ 2-1

HERCOG TO BEAT UYTVANCK @ 7-4