Pro Tennis Trading: US Open 2019

US OPEN 

VEKIC (1.96) V GOERGES (2.0) 

Goerges leads the head to head 3-0, Vekic has been laying very well and my heart ays she could win this outlooking purely at the stats there is a reason Goerges leads 3-0 and it is purely that the matchup favours her game, she does everything just that little bit better than Vekic. 

LAY VEKIC 1.96 - RELAY 1.40 - EXIT 3.0 - 1.90 

OSAKA (1.48) V BENCIC (3.0) 

Bencic leads the head to head 3-1, including 2-0 on hard courts Bencic has only dropped one set in this tournament so far and is getting better and better, Osaka has also been playing decent but taking into account the head to head and Bencic’s form then the price’s are wrong. 

LAY OSAKA 1.48 - RELAY 1.18 - EXIT 2.30 - 1.32

WTA Dubai: GOERGES (1.35) V RISKE(3.40)

WTA DUBAI 

GOERGES (1.35) V RISKE(3.40) 

Goerges leads the head to head 2-0 one match went three sets and her price is too short considering they met last week and Goerges won 7-5 in the third set. Considering that then she has to be a lay at her current price of 

1.35 ZHANG (2.28) V KONTAVEIT(1.65) 

Kontaveit leads the head to head 2-0 but both matches have gone three sets and I see no reason why this won't be the same. I will be looking to lay Kontaveit if she wins the first set around or hits the 1.120 mark during the first set. 

HSIEH (2.82) V SEVASTOVA (1.49) 

Back Hsieh at her current price and look to exit if she gets a breakpoint or if her price comes down to 2.20, her variation will cause Sevastova problems and I think three sets are likely here. 

MUGURUZA 2.24) V YASTREMSKA (1.74) 

Yastremska leads the head to head 2-0 but I am going against the youngster today, happy to lay her at her current price and I feel Muguruza will cause her problems today. I will look to exit around the 2.20 mark 

BOUCHARD (1.61) V LAPKO (2.50) 

The stats on hard courts are very similar with Bouchard just slightly ahead, I will be looking to back Bouchard around the 2.0 mark if she hits it as I think she comes through here.

WTA HUA HIN: DUAN TO BEAT GOLUBIC @ 3.0

WTA HUA HIN 

DUAN TO BEAT GOLUBIC @ 3.0 

Duan is an all-out attacking player and very dangerous, Golubic is steady and a good net layer but if Duan is on form then she will make these odds look very silly and she will be able to overpower Golubic. 

ZIDANSEK TO BEAT BRADY @ 2.38 

Zidansek is more at home on clay courts but she is starting to transfer that form onto hard courts and is a very dangerous opponent for Brady as she looked in excellent form in winning her last match here. 

ZHENG TO BEAT BEGU @ 2.35 

Zheng leads the head to head 1-0, she is far more at ease on hard courts and Begu has looked on poor form this season so far 

WTA ST PETERSBURG 

ZVONAREVA TO BEAT GOERGES @ 3.40 

Zvonareva’s defensive skills could force Goerges into longer rallies than she is comfortable with and too many unforced errors. 

KASATKINA TO BEAT SHARAPOVA @ 4.0 

Both player very much at home on indoor hard courts, Kasatkina likes this tournament as she has played it three times and reached the semi-final twice. Sharapova is becoming more inconsistent and her serve sometimes can be a liability so to be getting odds of 4.0 on Kasatkina is crazy

WTA Wimbledon Tuesday: BERTENS TO BEAT GOERGES @ EVENS

Wimbledon 2018 - 

BERTENS TO BEAT GOERGES @ EVENS

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

BERTENS 69.3% 37.9%

GOERGES 80.9% 32.7%

Bertens leads the head to head 2-0 although both were on clay which is her best surface by far. Neither player in the past would put down grass as their favourite surface with their respective win loss records throughout their career standing at Goerges 19-18 and Bertens 11-14 but looking at the stats over the last 12 months revels both players are in fact playing with such confidence that both have adapted to grass quite well with Goerges 6-2 Bertens 5-2. Goerges has had a far easier route here only playing one player ranked inside the top 50 in the world Strycova and she managed to win that match 8-6 in the third set. Bertens has beaten two top  10 ranked opponents so far in Venus Williams 8-6 in the 3rd set and that seems to have given her so much confidence that she beat a lot of peoples favourite for the title Karolina Plskova in straight sets on Monday. Given the recent form of both these two then I have to side with Bertens who has more variation to her game and stronger return of serve which I think could prove telling in this match up. 

BUDAPEST ITF 

CADANTU TO BEAT RYBAKINA @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

RYBAKINA  63.5% 37.2%

CADANTU 50.3% 51.1%

Respective win loss records on clay reads Rybakina 11-7 (6-6 over 12 months) Cadantu 179-124 (15-12 over 12 months) Neither player has been in great form but Cadantu is a real streetfighter, she annoys opponents,  tries to put them off and just generally becomes a pest on court. Rybankina while having potential is very inexperienced on clay and coming up against Cadantu here is a very difficult ask even if she is not in great form. Cadantu’s aggressive return game will put the youngster under pressure and I have Cadantus priced up a shade of odds on so will happily take the 11-10 on offer.

DULGHERU TO BEAT YASTREMSKA @ 12-5

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

DULGHERU  60.% 50.9%

YASTREMSKA 66.3% 40.1%

Dulgheru leads the head to head 1-0 having won earlier this year in straight sets on hard court. Both these two have been in dense form, Dulgheru reaching the last 64 at Wimbledon managing to win 4 matches before losing to Venus Williams in three sets, Yastremska won Rome impressively last week not dropping a set but to put it into context she did not play an opponent ranked in the world top 200 as it was a very weak field. I feel the bookmakers have priced up as a little bit a of a reaction to this as well as her potential. Both players have good records on clay with Dulgheru 27-11 and Yastremska 23-6 over the last 12 months, while I do make Yastremska favourite here I certainly do not make her the heavy odds on favourite she is and Dulgheru at 12-5 is way overpriced.

JAKUPOVIC TO BEAT JABEUR @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

JAKUPOVIC 60.9% 44.5%

JABEUR 67.4% 37.1%

Jabeur leads the head to head 3-0, respective win loss records on clay Jabeur 82-40 (6-7) Jakupovic 109-91 (16-10) Jakupovic has been in good form recently on grass, reaching the Quarter Finals at both Birmingham and Nottingham Jabeur has also had impressive results on the grass but hers were on the circuit and not the main tour when she only beat one player ranked inside the worlds top 200, Jakupovic meanwhile defeated 4 players ranked inside the worlds top 100 including two top 20 players. 

MONDAY WIMBLEDON 2018: GIORGI TO BEAT MAKAROVA @ 11-10

MONDAY WIMBLEDON

GIORGI TO BEAT MAKAROVA @ 11-10 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

GIORGI 72% 33.8%

MAKAROVA 70.1% 27.6%

Both of them are happy on grass, Makarova has a win loss record 53-28 compared to Giorgi’s 42-21 record. So far both of them have been impressive in beating opponents ranked higher than themselves but where I think this match will be won and lost is the return of serve, Giorgi has an explosive game and she tends to play all out attack which when it fires becomes very difficult to play against and I think this will unsettle Makarova today who despite having a lot of talent does also have a severe lack of self belief. 

VEKIC TO BEAT GOERGES @ 11-10

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

VEKIC  74.9% 30.8%

GOERGES 79.9% 32%

Goerges leads the head to head 1-0 winning on clay in straight sets back in 2015. Vekic is finally starting to fulfil on her promise that she showed as a 17 year old and she feels very much at home here having been based here for some time. Vekic has been mightly impressive so far this week not dropping a set in coming through her 3 matches. Goerges has had a tougher route to get here a tight two set match over Puig followed by a three setter against Lapko and then a marathon 3 setter against Strycova that she won 10-8 in the decider. Win loss records on grass are 18-18 for Goerges compared to Vekic 23-17 and similar to the Giorgi match then I think these odds are the wrong way round. 

BENCIC + 4 GAMES TO BEAT KERBER @ 6-5

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

KERBER 76.7% 39.7%

BENCIC 73.7% 34.3%

Bencic leads the head to head 3-1 although they have yet to meet on grass, Three years ago Bencic was the brightest young player on the circuit and touted as a future Wimbledon champion due to her comfort on grass but since then injuries and a loss of confidence have hampered her rise but this season she is returning to show some of that potential. Win loss records for them both on grass is impressive Bencic 35-15 Kerber 61-25. So far at Wimbledon both have been quite impressive but more so bench as she has overcome Garcia with her fantastic serve and then grass specialist Riske before defeating top 30 Navarro yesterday. Kerber came through a tough match against Zvonareva in the first round then a three setter against Lui where she looked in trouble but as Kerber does so many times she found a way to win then against Osaka she was comfortable against an opponent who lacked belief she could trouble her. Taking the head to head into account, Bencic is the underdog so can play without too much pressure and her ability on grass means I am leaning towards a tight encounter with Kerber’s exceptional defensive skills and determination just getting her through in the end but Bencic with the 4 game handicap start is my bet.

Wimbledon 2018: First Round

RUS TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 8-1

Williams maybe a little rusty and Rus has a tremendous serve using her height to great advantage and if Williams if just a little off the boil then this price could look huge and is worth taking a chance on. 

SWAN TO BEAT BUGU 7-4

Neither player particularly good on grass but Swan has the greater potential and begun looked totally shot of confidence in losing to Giorgi at Eastbourne in straight sets. 

GIORGI TO BEAT SEVASTOVA @ 6-5

39-21 win loss record compared to 18-13 and Giorgi is a fearsome hitter and a match for almost any player in the world when she is on song as she hits the ball so flat and hard and plays well on grass. 

PUIG TO BEAT GOERGES @ 11-4

Puig leads the head to head 4-1 including winning on grass and has the better grass court record. 

STEFKOVA TO BEAT BERTENS @ 7-2

Bertens is awful on clay as her record of 7-14 shows, so far this year she has won just one match ingress, Stefkova has come through Wimbledon qualifying and is value to cause what many people believe would be an upset here. 

KUZNETSOVA TO BEAT STRYCOVA @ 7-4

50-27 compared to 51-31 win loss record on grass, Kuznetsova leads the head to head 2-0 including a win here at Wimbledon albeit in 2008! Strycova has been in the better form but I am taking Kuznetsova to raise her game and she has the all round variation to be able to defeat Strycova.

TUESDAY

BOGDAN TO BET ARRUBARRENA @ 11-10

Arrubarrena leads the h2h record 1-0, neither player has great records on grass but Bogdan has the more powerful game that should be more suited to this surface. 

ZVONAREVA TO BEAT KERBER @ 5-1

Zvonareva easily came through qualifying and as a former finalist here feels very much at home and 5-1 is a craxy price is she is able to perform to anything like her previous form which she has done in the qualifiers.

BENCIC TO BEAT GARCIA @ 12-5

32-15 against 24-15 records on grass, Garcia has a wonderful serve but Bencic has the better all round game including at the net and I am surprised to see her such a big price.

COLLINS TO BEAT MERTENS @ 9-4

Collins has an excellent serve and if it firing then she could prove a handful here for Mertens who is not a natural on grass

FETT TO BEAT KASATKINA @ 11-2

Fett has the bigger weapons and more powerful game and I think at these prices she is a great bet to overpower Kasatkina

Additional bets:

CORNET TO BEAT CIBULKOVA @ 2-1

HERCOG TO BEAT UYTVANCK @ 7-4

French Open 2018: GIORGI TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 6-4

GIORGI TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 6-4

Giorgi leads the head to head 2-1, she has a 10-4 win loss record over the last 12 months compared to 8-4 for Stephens 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

GIORGI 68.5% 42.4%

STEPHENS 69.3% 40.6%

MUGURUZA V STOSUR OVER 20.5 GAMES @ EVENS

Muguruza leads the head to head 2-1, two of the three matches have been three sets and have covered this odds line

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

STOSUR 75.1% 32.8%

MUGURUZA 73.7% 40%

PLISKOVA TO BEAT SHARAPOVA @ EVENS

Both have been in good form here and I think the difference is Pliskova’s serve is more stable and less likely to crack under pressure and in a match dominated by serve that will be a telling point. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

SHARAPOVA 72% 41.2%

PLISKOVA 78.3% 31.4%

BEGU TO BEAT GARCIA @ 9-4

BEGU V GARCIA OVER 21.5 GAMES @ EVENS

Garcia leads the head to head 3-2, on clay it is tied at 1-1, 3 of their 5 matches have gone to three sets and out of 13 sets played there has been 4 tie breaks so I was tempted by the tie break in match @ 103 but being the French Open there is no tie break in the final set so the price is not high enough as we are only looking at two sets

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

BEGU 64.4% 41.4%

GARCIA 74.7% 33.4%

GOERGES TO BEAT WILLIAMS @ 11-10

Williams leads the head to head 2-0 but has not looked at her best since returning and Goerges has been playing great tennis for the last 12 months and will be inside the world’s top 10 after this tournament 

HOLD SERVE  BREAK SERVE

GOERGES 74.9% 27.2%

WILLIAMS 68.4% 46.2%