Monday, 15 March 2021

WTA ST Petersburg (15th March)


WTA ST PETERSBURG 

OUTRIGHT - Looks a wide open tournament but unfortunately two of the players I fancy to lift the trophy are drawn against each other in the first round! Kristina Mladenovic has a good record here having won the tournament in 2017 and being a runner up in 2018 her strong serve suits this service and despite not being in great recent form she is the type of player who just pulls a shock result out of the bag. Margarita Gasparyan has an excellent indoor hard courts win loss record of 78-39 throughout her career and unfortunate her career has been stalled by injuries but she still has a 55-30 win los record in her home country and is more than capable of going on a run here and unfortunately she faces Maldenovic in her first match but instead of choosing which player to pick I am just accepting one goes out here as at the prices I am happy to accept that. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is another player with an excellent 84-39 indoor hard court win loss record and in her home country she also has a good 47-24 win loss record and has to be on the shortlist to go far here. 

ANASTASIA PAVLYUCHENKOVA 10-1 
KRISTINA MLADENOVIC 25-1 
MARGARITA GASPARYAN 50-1 

KASATKINA V TAUSON OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 6-5 

Both have excellent indoor hard court records and both been in very good form with Tauson winning her last two tournaments she has competed in and also winning two matches here so far although I am a little weary of all the recent tennis catching up with her a little. Kasatkina also won a tournament in Australia although she did lose in the first round in Dubai in her most recent tournament. I think this has the makings of a 3 set match with Tauson starting fast before Kasatkina coming on strongly in the latter part of the match. 

ZAVATSKA V GASANOVA OVER 22.5 GAMES @ 59-50 

Zavatska is more at home on clay as shown by her win loss record of 24-20, Gasanova has a win loss record of 20-19. Both players have very similar records and while I favour Gasanova for the win I think they are both very difficult to separate so overs is the value call here. 

WTA MONTERRY OUTRIGHT - 

Similar to St Petersburg this looks a wide open tournament as shown by 6-1 the field and I am going to go for a proven performer at big price to chance they have a going week and bounce into some form. The selection is HEATHER WATSON previous winner here in 2016 she has not played since Australian Open so will be well rested and although may be vulnerable in her first match as long as she comes through that then she has the consistent game in this field that could help her go far in the tournament as the field is made up of alot of unpredictable players. 

HEATHER WATSON 20-1 

ANN LI V ARANTXA RUS OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 2.21 (PINNACLE)

Li leads the head to head 1-0 winning in three sets at last years US Open, Li is more at home on hard courts as her win loss record shows but Rus has a good serve and although unlikely to win she should be able to keep this very tight and cover the total games.

KALINSKAYA V PODOROSKA OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 2.11 (PINNACLE) 

Almost identical win loss % record on outdoor hard courts with Kalinskaya 9-8 over the last 12 months and 56-31 through her career compared to Podoroska 5-5 and 89-53 through her career. Kalinskaya hold serve around 6% more than her opponent but her opponents breaks on average 5% more often so all in it looks a very even contest so over is the call.

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