Sunday, 2 September 2018

US Open: PLISKOVA TO BEAT BARTY @ 2.29

PLISKOVA
PLISKOVA TO BEAT BARTY @ 2.29 
MATCH TO FEATURE A TIEBREAK @ 3.25 
OVER 27.5 GAMES @ 3.15

Barty leads the head to head 2-1, two matches have gone to three sets and the other featured two tie-breaks. 8 sets have been played between these two and 5 of them have been tiebreaks. 92 games are the Total games played in the three matches between these two averaging over 30 and the only time the above game spread has not been covered is when Pliskova won in two tie-breaks at Nottingham in 2016. Both players have come through their matches fairly easily especially with neither losing a set so far. The stats are very close and I expect it to mirror all their other clashes and a tight three-set match is on the cards and at 2.29 value is on Pliskova 

                                               HOLD SERVE                     BREAK SERVE 

PLISKOVA                             76.1%                                   34.1% 
BARTY                                  77.7%                                   35.6% 

MERTENS TO BEAT STEPHENS @ 2.67 

Mertens leads the head to head 1-0 winning last month in Cincinnati in straight sets, both have almost identical records wining 67% of their hard court matches this season. Mertens has reached two quarterfinals and a semi in her last three tournaments and Stephens the final in Montreal. Mertens has played the better standard of tennis so far here this week and Stephens will need to raise her level here otherwise the result will be the same as last month and 2.67 is a great price. 

                                           HOLD SERVE                         BREAK SERVE 

MERTENS                         68.1%                                       43.5% 
STEPHENS                       69.5%                                       30.1% 

OSAKA TO BEAT SABALENKA @ 2.22 

Well the cat is well and truly out of the beg with regards Sabalenka now so bang goes all the value but it has been a good run, her dynamic game has taken a few by surprise and the way she has been playing has been superb but I am going to take a chance that it ends here against a very good opponent who has the power to maybe not match her but certainly competes but with greater consistency. Osaka did not lose a game in her whitewash of Sasnovich yesterday and that was very impressive and will mean she is very fresh for this encounter, Sabalenka impressively beat Kvitova in straight sets but I am happy to avoid her now she is odds-on as she is still very inexperienced at this level and stage of a grand slam.

                                        HOLD SERVE                            BREAK SERVE 

OSAKA                           74.7%                                          35.3%
SABALENKA                  73.7%                                          37.5% 

VONDROUSOVA TO BEAT TSURENKO @ 2.73 

The stats are very similar here and both players were playing very well at this tournament, my one concern is Tsurenko’s physical condition as she really does seem to have a frail body when it comes to a lot of matches and although hers have been very short I still think they will take a toll. Vondrousvoa played well in defeating Bertens and for once a couple of tiebreaks went our way! I see no reason why Vondrousvoa’s price is so big here in what looks a very tight matchup as they both hit the ball hard, flat and aggressive. 

                                       HOLD SERVE                           BREAK SERVE 

VONDROUSVOA          67.1%                                         40.6% 
TSURENKO                  65.3%                                         42.5%

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