Monday, 26 June 2017

WTA EASTBOURNE

BOUCHARD
WTA EASTBOURNE

BOUCHARD TO BEAT STRYCOVA @ 2-1

Head to head is tied 3-3, never met on grass. I just feel Bouchard could come alive this grass court season, she has had her well-documented problems but is without a doubt still a fine tennis player and back not the surface where she reached the Wimbledon final could just see her confidence come back. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

BOUCHARD 68.6% 25.7%

STRYCOVA 71.7% 33%


ROYG TO BEAT HSIEH @ 6-5

Royg has the better serve by far and Hsieh is still better known as a double specialist even though she has had some good results this year she is a player I do not trust at all as when things start going wrong she can give up, Royg is competitive and her serve should allow her some free points on today’s surface. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

ROYG 72% 39.7%

HSIEH 65.9% 42.3%


MERTENS TO BEAT PAVLYUCHENKOVA @ 5-4

Mertens has a 13-8 win-loss record on grass compared to Pavy’s 21-20. Mertens destroyed Babos here yesterday and a performance similar to that level would make her very hard to beat here today as she is so much better on the return of serve. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

MERTENS 68.8% 46.9%

PAVLYUCHENKOVA 71.7% 27.7%


BELLIS TO BEAT GOERGES @ 5-4

Goerges was on a hot streak last week when she reached the final in Majorca and she played inspired tennis, this happens every year but her problem is she fails to follow it up every year. Bellis played well last week until meeting an inspired Goerges who demolished her, different tournament, different atmosphere and likely a different Goerges is why I am going for a different result here. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

BELLIS 67.5% 40%
GOERGES 79.7% 30.4%


YING YING DUAN TO BEAT MCHALE @ 2-1

Duan’s horrendous return game might not matter too much here as Mchale is not at home on this surface as backed up by her career record of 22 wins 21 losses compared to Duan’s 14-8. Mchale has been in awful form of late losing in the first round in 6 of her last 8 tournaments and in the other two going out in the second round. Duan can hit the ball extremely hard but it is a little inconsistent but at a very generous price against an out of form opponent she has to be the choice. 

HOLD SERVE BREAK SERVE

DUAN 76.9% 23.1%

MCHALE 68.4% 37.8%

Why Women Tennis Rankings Confuse Bettors

Horseracing handicappers rarely focus on the points a certain horse has acquired during any given season, it’s just not as important as it is in tennis and only used to enter some prestigious races like the Kentucky Derby in the US. But rankings in tennis define publicly how good a player is worldwide, in reality, the rankings mean nothing and this results in top 20 players losing against a 150th player more often than you can imagine.


Why? Because the ranking system is flawed.

THE 2017 ATP tour has been called one of the most unpredictable season in recent history. Even before the start of the French Open of this year the world number 1 by rank, both men and women have still to win a major event. It’s even worse for the women side with Angelique Kerber falling on her first round loss against 41st ranked Ekaterina Makarova.
Only 3 of the top 8 in the ranks have reached the quarter-finals, one of the worst numbers since 2005.

The greatest surprise came when Jelena Ostapenko, with just 20 years of age and no tour titles to her name defeated Simona Halep, the world´s number 3.

So is this phenomenon just a boggy year for women tennis? Or the WTA rankings methodology is not correctly evaluating player real capacities?

How do WTA Rankings Work?


Rankings are determined by the points earned during the past 52 weeks on official events, counting only 16 of the top results.

The amount points given depend on the prestige of the event, not the difficulty of the match. For example, a Grand Slam champion earns 2000 points, while winning a WTA International event gives just 280 points.

The flaw is evident, the arbitrariness of how points are given to players hide their true skill when facing tough opponents with little points.

FIFA, for example, does take into account the level of difficulty of a given match with a complex evaluating system to determine the most accurate rank for a football team. This might not be the best of examples as again, it's strongly inaccurate compared to real life, but far better than how the WTA does it and tends to be more real when applied to national teams and not to individual clubs.

Returning to the WTA ranking system, a player that advances in a tournament due to opponent retirement or walkover earn the same points as a player who advances by real efforts.

And the discrepancy in points in huge amongst similar level events. Defeating a player in a Premier-level final, which is just below Grand Slam, earns half the points.

The results are evident as Caroline Wozniacki holds number 1 despite never having won a Grand Slam.

The rankings are not just a system to decide who is number one, it defines event seeding. The top rankers get positions in the draw to avoid the very best to be facing each other during the early stages. The results sometimes happen to be the opposite of what is expected, as top rankers do not showcase the abilities to their position.

A Flaw that Works to Handicapper’s Benefit


This anomaly works perfectly for handicappers who can correctly evaluate a player based on their own system (something horse racing handicappers thrive at) and if the ranks that match your own evaluation, then you have found a betting opportunity to go for the underdog and win at great odds knowing that contender is really the favorite to win. To take advantage of this, check out the tennis betting markets provided by williamhill.com

There is talk that the point system could change in the near future, but as long as that happens women tennis will be a bettor’s jackpot.

Sunday, 25 June 2017

WTA EASTBOURNE

MAKAROVA
WTA EASTBOURNE

MAKAROVA TO BEAT NAVARRO @ 5-6

Suarrez Navarro leads the head to head 5-2 but Makarova is by far away from the better player on grass now, Makarova still seems to have problems fully believing in herself but when she does she is a match for anyone. Records on grass courts favour Makarova hugely as she has a 49-24 win-loss record compared to her opponents 

                                    HOLD SERVE        BREAK SERVE

MAKAROVA                71.1%                     32.5%

NAVARRO                  66.3%                      30.2%



WATSON TO BEAT TSURENKO @ 8-5

Neither of these two players would likely have grass down as their favourite surface as is born out by their respective records, Watson through her career is 28-28 wins losses and Tsurenko is 18-19. Both have shown glimpses that they can play on this surface, Watson in reaching the final at Surbiton and Tsurenko by reaching the SF a couple of weeks ago in Holland. One always has to be wary of Tsurenko’s physical state as to say she is delicate is an understatement! I just feel this is likely to go three sets and that will favour Watson heavily.


                                   HOLD SERVE        BREAK SERVE

WATSON                    67.5%                     23.5%

TSURENKO                66.2%                    31.9%

Thursday, 22 June 2017

WTA BIRMINGHAM CLASSIC

Camila Giorgi
WTA BIRMINGHAM

Giorgi to beat Svitolina @ 2-1 

The grass is by far Svitolina’s worst surface as her career record of 5 wins and 10 losses shows. Giorgi loves grass as shown by her 34-16 win-loss record. Looking at the hold and serve percentages.

                                     Hold Serve    Break Serve 
Giorgi                           79.8%            27.2% 
Svitolina                       74.2%            29% 

Giorgi has beaten both Fett and The young Russian who I expected to upset her and she can be a real form player, when she is hot then she can match anyone as she hits the ball so hard and flat. I suspect her greater ease on the surface today could see an upset and she is a great price to do so. 

Player Profile: Camila Giorgi is an Italian professional tennis player. She is right-handed and plays with a two-handed backhand. Born in Macerata, Italy to Argentinian father and Italian mother, Giorgi started playing tennis at the age of five at a local club.

Vanderweghe V Konta to feature over 26.5 games @ 2-1 

Both these players have excellent serves and both are happy on the grass. Konta leads the head to head 2-0 with the first match featuring 28 games and the second match being tied 1 set all when Vanderweghe retired but that had already featured 20 games in just the two sets. 

                                 Hold Serve     Break Serve 
Konta                        78.4%            33.3% 
Vanderweghe           79.6%             34.4%

Tuesday, 20 June 2017

WTA BIRMINGHAM

HIBINO
WTA BIRMINGHAM 

HIBINO TO BEAT SINIAKOVA @ 3-1

Hibino has a good serve and Siniakova can be a very immature player if things go against her. 

Player Profile: Nao Hibino is a professional Japanese tennis player, and currently the women's Japanese number 2. She is currently ranked 89th in singles and 105th in doubles. In 2015, she won her first WTA title.

VIKHLYANTSEVA TO BEAT GIORGI @ 5-4 

Young Russian was very impressive yesterday and has a stronger return game than Girorgi. 

Player Profile: Natalia Konstantinovna Vikhlyantseva is a Russian tennis player. Her favourite court surface is grass

VEKIC TO BEAT RISKE @ 6-4 Vekic 

Won the tournament last week, her serve is a huge weapon when it works well and Riske has not been playing well lately. Vekic leads the head to head 2-0. 

Player Profile: Donna Vekić is a Croatian tennis player. Vekić has won two singles titles on the WTA tour as well as five singles and one doubles title on the ITF circuit in her career. On 19 June 2017, she reached her best singles ranking of world no. 58.

WTA MALLORCA

KALINSKAYA TO BEAT BARTHEL @ 13-8


Monday, 19 June 2017

Birmingham Classic: Fett to beat Giorgi

WTA Birmingham

Fett to bt Giorgi @7-4

Mallorca

Kalinskaya to bt Witthoeft @ 10-3

Martens to bt Sevastova @ 11-8 

Player Profile: Jana Fett is a Croatian tennis player. On 11 April 2016, Fett reached her best singles ranking of world number 142. On 14 December 2015, Fett reached her best doubles ranking of world number 450.

Saturday, 17 June 2017

Nottingham Open

Rybriakova
Nottingham

Rybriakova to bt Konta @ 7-4
Safarova to bt Vekic @ 8-11

Ricoh

Vikhlyantseva to bt Konjuh @ 13-10

Player Profile: Magdaléna Rybáriková is a Slovak professional tennis player. On 19 August 2013, she achieved her career-high WTA singles ranking of 31.

Wednesday, 14 June 2017

WTA NOTTINGHAM

JANA FETT
WTA NOTTINGHAM

JANA FETT TO BEAT ASHLEIGH BARTY @ 3-1

WTA RICOH

KIRSTEN FLIPKENS TO BEAT ANNETT KONTAVEIT @ 9-5

Player Profile: Jana Fett is a Croatian tennis player. On 11 April 2016, Fett reached her best singles ranking of world number 142. On 14 December 2015, Fett reached her best doubles ranking of world number 450

Tuesday, 13 June 2017

WTA RICOH

PLISKOVA
WTA RICOH

PLISKOVA TO BEAT KONTAVEIT @ 6-4

Basically, this will come down to how well Pliskova serves, she is a junior Wimbledon champion and very much at home on grass and I am expecting her to show up well over the next few weeks. Kontaveit is another player who likes grass and I expect good results from her too but on this occasion, I feel the server of Pliskova will prove the deciding factor.

WTA NOTTINGHAM

Yastremska to beat Rybriakova @ 4-1 

Monday, 12 June 2017

WTA NOTTINGHAM

Jana Fett, WTA
FETT TO BEAT BARTHEL @ 6-4 
ROBSON TO BEAT BOSERUP @ 23-20 
AHN TO BEAT OSAKA @ 9-5 
WTA RICOH RUS TO BEAT BABOS @ 10-3 

Player profile:

Jana Fett is a Croatian tennis player. On 11 April 2016, Fett reached her best singles ranking of world number 142. On 14 December 2015, Fett reached her best doubles ranking of world number 450.